Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan data confirm economy is in meltdown Venezuela’s central bank has released economic data for the first time since 2014 and the figures are predictably horrific. With oil prices now languishing below $30pb, and the country’s political... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru hikes & Chile holds, gradual tightening ahead The decision by Peru’s central bank to hike interest rates for a second consecutive month underlines its concerns about above-target inflation and we have brought forward our forecast for 50bp of... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Warning signs from Colombia’s current account The widening of Colombia’s current account deficit in recent months is a major cause for concern and a key factor behind our below-consensus view that growth will slow further in 2016. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Macri makes impressive start Mauricio Macri has made a strong start to his term as president of Argentina, tackling some of the country’s biggest macroeconomic distortions in his first month in office. There’s work still to do –... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing policy risks in Brazil Fears that Brazil’s government will respond to a deepening recession by resorting to populist economic policies have surfaced over the past week. As things stand, we don’t think there is much evidence... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Brazil In response to the deepening economic and political crisis in Brazil we are marking down some of our key forecasts. We now expect interest rates to be raised further, the currency to weaken a little... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing and credit bubbles: the next shoe to drop? Investors in Brazil are understandably focussed on the economic implications of the recent change in Finance Minister and the impeachment proceedings against President Rousseff. But we think the way... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & Chile hike, but tightening cycles to be gradual Last night’s decision by central banks in Mexico and Chile to hike interest rates suggests that the actions of the US Fed still hold sway with policymakers in Latin America. Nonetheless, we suspect... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies shrug off looming Fed hike Currencies in Latin America appear to have shrugged off the prospect of a looming US interest rate hike, with most exchange rates broadly unchanged against the dollar month-to-date. The currencies of... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rate hike another step in gradual tightening cycle The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to follow up September’s surprise interest rate hike with a second 25bp hike, to 3.75%, shows that policymakers are still concerned about the persistence of... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a reform checklist Mauricio Macri will be sworn in as president of Argentina today against a backdrop of lofty expectations in financial markets for policy change. The lesson from other EMs is that big reforms tend to... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela opposition supermajority confirmed, Maduro out? Venezuela’s electoral council has finally conceded that the opposition won a two-thirds supermajority in Sunday’s legislative elections and this is certainly a game changer. It will give the... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian food inflation set to ease…but not just yet The various factors pushing up food inflation in Brazil should start to fade by Q2 2016 and, with the boost from this year’s regulated price hikes set to ease too, headline inflation is likely to... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela election: Opposition wins, but no big policy shift likely Venezuela’s opposition comfortably won yesterday’s legislative elections, although with 22 seats still to be declared, the size of the victory (and therefore the impact on policymaking) still hangs in... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela elections: turning point or tipping point? Venezuela’s opposition looks set to triumph in legislative elections on Sunday but, unlike last month’s election upset in Argentina, this won’t trigger a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. If... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: The economic consequences of impeachment As we anticipated, Brazilian markets have so far shrugged off last night’s news that impeachment proceedings will be launched against President Rousseff . As the dust settles, the biggest consequence... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
