Latin America Economics Update Chile’s tightening cycle to be brief Chile’s decision to raise interest rates last night is likely to be followed by another hike soon, but the bigger picture is that the tightening cycle is likely to be short. Meanwhile, although the... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of China’s slowdown on Latin America Latin America is one of the most exposed emerging market regions to the slowdown in China’s economy. The actual impact so far has varied between countries. Venezuela, Peru, and Chile have been hardest... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recent weakness in Chilean activity a temporary blip Economic activity data from Chile have been weak in recent months, but we don’t think this marks the start of a deeper downturn. The softer data have been largely the result of various temporary... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real stabilises following sharp sell-off The good news is that the Brazilian real is no longer in freefall and appears to have stabilised at around 4.0/$ in recent days following verbal intervention by policymakers. We’re still taking a... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia raises interest rates, another hike likely by year-end The Central Bank of Colombia’s decision to hike interest rates took many analysts by surprise and demonstrated policymakers’ determination to keep inflation under control. However, with inflation... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Political risk returns The downturn in regional economic growth and a raft of corruption scandals have dented presidential approval ratings across Latin America over the past year. This has marked the return of political... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: in a fiscal hole, but default fears overdone Brazil’s public finances are in a mess, but mounting fears of a sovereign default are overdone. 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Sep.) Our Argentina Activity indicator (AAI) suggests that the economy grew in Q2 for the first time since 2013. However, this appears to have been due largely to an aggressive loosening of fiscal policy... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for modest rate hikes The Central Bank of Chile left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.00% last night, but the more hawkish accompanying statement pointed to rate hikes in the near future. As such, we are bringing... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rate hike not the start of an aggressive tightening cycle Although the timing of Peru’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bp (to 3.50%) was a surprise, we had been expecting the central bank to shift into tightening mode in the coming quarters... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downgraded, fiscal mess deepens There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's fiscal mess goes from bad to worse The move by Brazil’s government to yet again lower its fiscal targets for 2016 means that its projections for the public finances are finally starting to look realistic. But at the same time, they... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China concerns send Lat Am markets tumbling The turmoil of the past few weeks has pushed many financial markets in LatinAmerica below our end-year targets. If we’re right in thinking that China’seconomy should avoid the hard landing that many... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker real starting to bring benefits to Brazil The latest slump in Brazilian markets has added to gloom over the outlook for the economy, but there are early signs that a much weaker real is now starting to benefit the country’s trade position. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: chance of rate hikes growing A sharp fall in its currency, rising inflation and a widening current account deficit have increased the chance that Colombia’s central bank will tighten monetary conditions in the coming quarters... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: rate hike next month not yet a done deal We appreciate that we’re going out on a limb in saying this, but we don’t think that an interest rate hike next month in Mexico is necessarily the done deal that many now seem to assume. Indeed, a... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
