Latin America Economics Update Credit growth continues to cool, but concerns remain The slowdown in private sector lending growth across Latin America should help to ease concerns about the build-up of credit bubbles in the region. However, the accumulation of private sector debt... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Not much cause for concern in Mexico’s current account Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP on a four-quarter sum in Q4 and, with the worst of the falls in oil prices now behind us, we think it could narrow a touch further to about 1.5... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: case for interest rate cuts building Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but a slightly more dovish tone in the accompanying statement, combined with the announcement of budget cuts over the weekend... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of the Petrobras scandal It’s difficult to be precise, but we think the direct impact of the corruption scandal at Petrobras, including the effects of reduced investment by the company and others that have been implicated... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No further rate cuts in Chile, but more to come in Peru Interest rates in both Chile and Peru were left unchanged last night and, while we do not expect further monetary stimulus in Chile as its economy is finally showing signs of strengthening, we think... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil edging towards an energy crisis An intensifying drought in Brazil has made it increasingly likely that the authorities will implement some form of power rationing over the coming months. Much remains uncertain, but we think that... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More budget cuts likely in Mexico Spending cuts announced by the Mexican government worth 0.7% of GDP are unlikely to be enough to compensate for the loss of oil revenues this year and further spending cuts are likely later this year... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rate cuts still on the cards Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but, while the accompanying statement remained relatively balanced, the downward revision to this year’s GDP growth forecast suggests... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico on hold but rate cuts still not out of the question Interest rates in Mexico were left unchanged at 3.0% last night and concerns amongst policymakers about the weakness of the peso suggest that cuts are unlikely in the very near-term. For our part, we... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank suggests more hikes to come The big news from yesterday’s central bank meeting in Brazil isn’t the decision to raise interest rates to a three-year high of 12.25% - this was expected by pretty much everyone. Instead, the major... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling commodity prices weigh on markets Latin America’s financial markets have suffered so far this year following fresh declines in the prices of a number of the region’s commodity exports – notably copper and oil. Most equities and... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing market starting to cool Good news remains thin on the ground in Brazil, but we take some comfort from the fact that the country’s frothy housing market has so far managed to avoid a hard landing. It’s still early days, but... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Surprise rate cut in Peru, further reductions to come Although the timing of last night’s interest rate cut in Peru caught us (and the market) by surprise, we had been one of the few forecasters expecting rates to fall in the first half of this year. The... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dilma’s second term agenda takes shape The key elements of Brazil’s President Rousseff’s policy agenda for her second term in office have started to emerge over the past month. The central theme is a return to “orthodoxy”, with fiscal and... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
