Japan Economics Weekly Would an inflation target help? The success of “Your Party” in the Upper House elections has put the idea of an explicit inflation target for the Bank of Japan back on the policy agenda. A decent case can be made for at least a... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak lending is poor evidence of a credit crunch The persistent sluggishness of bank lending has encouraged talk that a shortage of credit is undermining the recovery in Japan’s economy. We still do not find this argument remotely convincing. All... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A mid-year progress report Looking back over the first half of the year, we have been right to be relatively bullish on the strength of the economic recovery in Japan. However, the yen has remained stronger and Japanese... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen strength not fatal, but clearly unwelcome We are not as worried as some about the impact of a stronger yen on the Japanese economy, but the past week saw two timely reminders of why it cannot be ignored completely. The recovery in export... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government’s growth strategy fails to impress In our view the government’s mid to long-term growth strategy and fiscal plan is a triumph of spin over substance. Nonetheless, the markets appear willing to give the new administration the benefit of... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly New PM makes a good start We have become a bit more positive about the prospects for real progress on Japan’s public finances following the first week of Naoto Kan’s premiership. Nonetheless, the first real test will come at... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken without need for intervention Speculation that the elevation of Finance Minister Kan to the premiership makes FX intervention more likely is a pretty poor reason to sell the Japanese currency. Nonetheless, we do expect political... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Employment conditions still improving The second successive monthly rise in the unemployment rate in April (to 5.1%) has been widely interpreted as a sign that the recovery in the domestic economy is already faltering. We are unconvinced... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How Japanese GDP can grow by 4.5% The attention of the markets is understandably elsewhere right now. Nonetheless, for the record, the first quarter GDP data kept Japan’s economy on course to grow by at least 4.0% in 2010. Our top of... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP growth to top 4% this year Japan’s economy is starting to fire on all cylinders. We expect another robust gain of around 1.5% in first quarter GDP (preliminary official data will be released on Thursday). Our growth forecast of... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Unambitious fiscal plan to test markets’ patience The DPJ’s economic and fiscal plan, due to be unveiled next month, is likely to be criticised on at least two counts: that the proposed target for the budget balance would still leave debt at very... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan dodges Greek crisis... for now The market reaction to the recent events in Greece shows that Japan is still seen as a safe haven rather than one of the next countries in line for a public finance crisis. This makes sense. In... 3rd May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Japan be doing more? Tensions between the Bank of Japan and the government over the need for further monetary stimulus remain high. We can see a number of good reasons for the Bank to resist that pressure for a few months... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What's the best use of a consumption tax hike? Finance Minister Kan's suggestion that any hike in the consumption tax should be used to increase government spending would risk backfiring in the markets. Even if increased public spending in certain... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What does renminbi appreciation mean for the yen? Speculation of an imminent resumption of renminbi appreciation has been supporting other Asian currencies against the dollar, including the yen. However, we would give this factor very little weight... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen heading for 100 against the dollar The past week’s Japanese data included some soft spots, but they were not bad enough on their own to justify a more bearish view on the yen. The relative optimism about the US economy and expectations... 5th April 2010 · 1 min read
