Japan Economics Weekly Strong start to Q3, turbulence ahead The revised data for Q2 GDP, released on Friday, confirmed that last quarter’s economic performance was not nearly as poor as first appeared. There are clouds on the horizon, but the evidence so far... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan's stock market should outperform soon The Bank of Japan’s recent decision to loosen monetary policy further has had little impact on Japan’s asset markets and the yen, which have continued to take their cue from developments overseas. We... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Political and fiscal risks to help undermine the yen Japanese government officials have stepped up their expressions of concern about the strength of the yen, but they appear to favour additional fiscal measures and further easing from the Bank of Japan... 30th August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth to pick up again in H2 Looking on the bright side, the fact that GDP was unexpectedly weak in the second quarter should at least have prepared the way for growth to pick up again in the second half of the year. But the... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How uncompetitive is the yen? Fears about the impact the rising yen will have on exporters are overdone. Deflation has ensured that Japan remains internationally competitive. The bigger threat is slowing demand in overseas markets... 16th August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What can the Bank of Japan do? The yen has continued to strengthen, while the economic outlook seems to be weakening. But the Bank of Japan is probably not in a position to do much in response on either front at its meeting this... 9th August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth slowing, not collapsing The rush of data at the end of July has added to doubts about the durability of the economic recovery, with sentiment in the equity market not helped either by further strength in the yen. However... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly On the yen again The Bank of Japan’s apparently relaxed attitude to the strength of the yen can largely be explained by the fact that there is very little that the central bank can do about it anyway. The currency’s... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would an inflation target help? The success of “Your Party” in the Upper House elections has put the idea of an explicit inflation target for the Bank of Japan back on the policy agenda. A decent case can be made for at least a... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak lending is poor evidence of a credit crunch The persistent sluggishness of bank lending has encouraged talk that a shortage of credit is undermining the recovery in Japan’s economy. We still do not find this argument remotely convincing. All... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A mid-year progress report Looking back over the first half of the year, we have been right to be relatively bullish on the strength of the economic recovery in Japan. However, the yen has remained stronger and Japanese... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen strength not fatal, but clearly unwelcome We are not as worried as some about the impact of a stronger yen on the Japanese economy, but the past week saw two timely reminders of why it cannot be ignored completely. The recovery in export... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government’s growth strategy fails to impress In our view the government’s mid to long-term growth strategy and fiscal plan is a triumph of spin over substance. Nonetheless, the markets appear willing to give the new administration the benefit of... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly New PM makes a good start We have become a bit more positive about the prospects for real progress on Japan’s public finances following the first week of Naoto Kan’s premiership. Nonetheless, the first real test will come at... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken without need for intervention Speculation that the elevation of Finance Minister Kan to the premiership makes FX intervention more likely is a pretty poor reason to sell the Japanese currency. Nonetheless, we do expect political... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Employment conditions still improving The second successive monthly rise in the unemployment rate in April (to 5.1%) has been widely interpreted as a sign that the recovery in the domestic economy is already faltering. We are unconvinced... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
