Japan Economics Weekly Slipping back into recession The Japanese economy almost certainly contracted in the final quarter of 2010 as government subsidies were withdrawn. The consensus view is that this is not a major concern because GDP is widely... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Three ways the fiscal crisis could play out The potential market implications of a fiscal crisis may not be as clear cut as some assume, particularly for JGBs, but it is hard to see any outcome that does not involve some further weakness both... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Faltering recovery adds to fiscal challenges The appointment of Kaoru Yosano as Minister for the Economy and Fiscal Policy has revived discussion of the case for a hike in the consumption tax, but no decision is likely until mid-year at the... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Rearranging the deckchairs In light of our growing concerns about the outlook for Japan’s economy and the risks of a fiscal crisis, we are cutting our end-2011 forecast for the Nikkei 225 from 10,750 to 9,000. This might appear... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A cautionary note on Japanese equities Optimism about the global economy and buoyancy in overseas markets has allowed the Nikkei to start the year positively. But while Japanese equities may still appear to be relatively cheap compared to... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How it could all go horribly wrong Markets are in a festive mood, but the more we think about the near-term prospects for the Japanese economy, the less merry we become. Indeed, it now seems more likely than not that Japan will stumble... 24th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession risks growing GDP will almost certainly fall in the current quarter but we are increasingly concerned that it may drop further in the first three months of 2011 as well, meaning that Japan will technically be in... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Upside risks to the Tankan Japan will almost certainly top the G7 league table for GDP growth in 2010 (with Germany the likely runner-up), but this rebound has to be seen in the context of a relatively low starting point... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't write off the recovery in manufacturing Japan's manufacturing sector has continued to weaken despite signs that industrial activity is picking up again in other major economies after a slowdown in the summer. This period of underperformance... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More to the inflation story than just the core The consensus is usually right to focus on the core measures of Japan’s CPI when looking at the prospects for a permanent end to deflation and the implications for monetary policy. Nonetheless, trends... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by the return of "inflation" Consumer prices probably rose year-on-year in October for the first time since 2008, but this would not mark the end of deflation in any meaningful sense. Aside from the occasional spike into positive... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q3 strong, but Q4 much weaker Monday's GDP figures for the third quarter should look good, with above-consensus growth of 1% (or more) quarter-on-quarter driven by domestic demand. However, the profile of the recent monthly data... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the yen finally turned? Now that the markets know the US Fed’s plans for additional QE, and these are presumably largely priced into the currency markets, any additional easing from the Bank of Japan will have a greater... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan keeps its options open The Bank of Japan’s decision to bring forward its November Policy Board meeting to the day after Wednesday’s FOMC raises the intriguing possibility that the Bank intends to respond to any additional... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the economy already rolling over into recession? The surge in the yen and recent weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector have raised concerns that Japan may already be sliding back into recession. In contrast, our view is that the near... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A glimmer of hope The seemingly relentless appreciation of the yen against the dollar has not caused quite the degree of panic in Japan’s equity markets that might have been anticipated. In part this is because the yen... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
