Japan Economics Weekly What will Japan's policymakers do next? Japan’s policymakers have sat on their hands and watched the yen climb to new highs since intervening in foreign exchange markets earlier this month. We expect recent financial market turmoil to be... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Still in the grip of deflation The revision to the CPI base-year resulted in a marked downward revision to inflation, showing clearly that Japan is still in the grip of deflation. Although the Bank of Japan has only recently... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don’t overestimate the impact of a strong yen The intervention to weaken the yen was only ever going to meet with limited success so long as the forces pushing the currency higher remain intact. That does not necessarily mean that the hollowing... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to make of a strong yen The recent strength of the yen has raised the prospect of exchange rate intervention from the Japanese government. We think this is unnecessary and, worse, would probably be ineffective. The yen has... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly No escape from deflation Reports of the death of deflation in Japan have been greatly exaggerated. Inflation has only temporarily turned positive, largely as a result of higher commodity prices and base effects in the annual... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trying to keep the lights on The government’s plan to “stress test” all nuclear facilities could further delay the restart of currently idle reactors just as we enter the summer period of peak power demand when they are needed... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP forecasts refreshed We have nudged up our forecast for Japanese GDP in 2011 but continue to expect a full year recession with the economy contracting by 1.2% . While the initial recovery from March’s disaster has been... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A closer look at the Tankan The Tankan confirmed that Japanese business conditions deteriorated in Q2, but more importantly that they are likely to improve, albeit only slightly, in Q3. As the initial disruption from the... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan-China trade: explaining the double deficit According to Ministry of Finance, Japan runs a trade deficit with China. However, when one looks at the trade data from a Chinese standpoint, it appears that China is also running a trade deficit with... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly New budget, same old problems The submission to the Diet of a second supplementary budget in early July is not expected to have a large impact. The macroeconomic effects of the additional budget are likely to be small, and it is... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank lending on course to rise again Overall bank lending is likely to increase over the rest of the year, but this would not necessarily be a sign of underlying economic strength. We expect business loan demand to rise as the weak... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Auto sector moving up a gear Japan’s automotive industry was, as we know, hit extremely hard by the March earthquake. Domestic demand collapsed while overseas sales shrank due to a shortage of supply. But both these constraints... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Labour data still to feel full impact of earthquake Employment and wages are bound to be much slower to respond to the Great East Japan Earthquake than either production or sales, but the business and consumer surveys suggest that the labour market... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A long way down The sharp contraction in activity in March tipped Japan into recession in Q1. The effect on GDP growth will be more acute in Q2 due to the very low base from which the economy must recover. Even if... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession confirmed? The week ahead will be dominated by the release of Q1 GDP on Thursday, which is almost certain to show the 11th March earthquake tipped the Japanese economy into recession. The low starting point will... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How useful are the PMI surveys? The attractiveness of the PMI surveys lies in their ability to provide an accurate and timely assessment of business conditions. Shocks to the Japan economy, such as the financial crisis and the... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
