Japan Economics Weekly Strong yen undermining efforts to control inflation The Japanese economy is sinking back into deflation. Domestically-generated inflationary pressures are non-existent, while the appreciation of the yen accentuates the effects of falling global... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government relying on depleted fiscal firepower The Japanese government has announced a fourth fiscal budget in a sign it remains reliant on its fiscal firepower to support the economy. But there are limits to how much it can do and it is already... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A warning shot over public finances Recent events in advanced economies have underscored just how quickly market sentiment towards sovereigns with unsustainable finances can shift. Last week two warning shots were fired across the bow... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Another blow for the auto industry Temporary factors are likely to cause output in the auto sector to fall in the coming months. The period of restocking that has supported production appears to have largely run its course, both at... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan still a long way from joining free-trade pact Prime Minister Noda’s announcement on Friday that Japan would join negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement is a step in the right direction. Not only would the pact open up... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The success (or otherwise) of yen intervention The intervention by the Japanese authorities last Monday has succeeded in weakening the yen and reducing exchange rate volatility, for now at least. The Ministry of Finance has a long history of... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Disappointing end to an unimpressive Q3 Monthly data for September indicated a disappointing end to an unimpressive third quarter: industrial output and retail spending fell every month of the quarter while inflation turned positive for the... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will GDP get a boost from house building activity? Japan’s beleaguered housing sector is still waiting for a boost from reconstruction-related building activity. When it comes, it may be partially offset by falling demand for housing. Even before the... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What can we learn from consumer confidence? The consumer confidence survey is the only direct gauge of consumer sentiment in Japan. In this Weekly we take a close look the construction of the survey and find it is a good leading indicator of a... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP forecasts revised down In this Weekly we present our revised forecasts for Japanese GDP. The tail-end of the recovery from March’s disaster should ensure a return to growth in Q3, but beyond this the outlook has... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stimulus needed to prevent treble-dip The latest data from Japan painted a gloomy picture of current conditions and suggest the risks of a treble-dip are increasing. GDP should have returned to growth in Q3, but could fall again in Q4. In... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan not government could turn the yen The rout in financial markets last week reflected a realisation that the global economy is slowing and there are limits to how much policymakers can do about it. Japan’s government has little scope to... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly “Operation Twist” not so pivotal for the yen The prospect of a renewed widening of the spread between two-year yields in the US and those in Japan is being cited by some as a good reason to expect the yen to weaken if the Fed implements... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Nervous households have much to be nervous about The recovery in consumer confidence stalled in August at a still low level, with sentiment on the outlook for employment worryingly depressed. Although there is nothing to suggest that the economy... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Vehicle sales: a good indicator of retail spending? Domestic vehicle sales in Japan appear to be closely correlated with both consumer confidence and retail sales. Recent sharp gyrations in the monthly retail sales data make understanding their... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth and inflation: where next? We have revised our Japan GDP and inflation forecasts out to 2013 but still expect a full-year recession in 2011. The smaller than expected contraction in second quarter GDP suggests that the rebound... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
