Japan Economics Weekly A cautionary note on Japanese equities Optimism about the global economy and buoyancy in overseas markets has allowed the Nikkei to start the year positively. But while Japanese equities may still appear to be relatively cheap compared to... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How it could all go horribly wrong Markets are in a festive mood, but the more we think about the near-term prospects for the Japanese economy, the less merry we become. Indeed, it now seems more likely than not that Japan will stumble... 24th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession risks growing GDP will almost certainly fall in the current quarter but we are increasingly concerned that it may drop further in the first three months of 2011 as well, meaning that Japan will technically be in... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Upside risks to the Tankan Japan will almost certainly top the G7 league table for GDP growth in 2010 (with Germany the likely runner-up), but this rebound has to be seen in the context of a relatively low starting point... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't write off the recovery in manufacturing Japan's manufacturing sector has continued to weaken despite signs that industrial activity is picking up again in other major economies after a slowdown in the summer. This period of underperformance... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More to the inflation story than just the core The consensus is usually right to focus on the core measures of Japan’s CPI when looking at the prospects for a permanent end to deflation and the implications for monetary policy. Nonetheless, trends... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by the return of "inflation" Consumer prices probably rose year-on-year in October for the first time since 2008, but this would not mark the end of deflation in any meaningful sense. Aside from the occasional spike into positive... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q3 strong, but Q4 much weaker Monday's GDP figures for the third quarter should look good, with above-consensus growth of 1% (or more) quarter-on-quarter driven by domestic demand. However, the profile of the recent monthly data... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the yen finally turned? Now that the markets know the US Fed’s plans for additional QE, and these are presumably largely priced into the currency markets, any additional easing from the Bank of Japan will have a greater... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan keeps its options open The Bank of Japan’s decision to bring forward its November Policy Board meeting to the day after Wednesday’s FOMC raises the intriguing possibility that the Bank intends to respond to any additional... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the economy already rolling over into recession? The surge in the yen and recent weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector have raised concerns that Japan may already be sliding back into recession. In contrast, our view is that the near... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A glimmer of hope The seemingly relentless appreciation of the yen against the dollar has not caused quite the degree of panic in Japan’s equity markets that might have been anticipated. In part this is because the yen... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is China to blame for the strong yen? China may have bought an unusually large quantity of Japanese bonds over the summer, but its purchases were too small to explain the strength of the yen or falls in government bond yields. In any case... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan set to disappoint markets This week's focus will be on the Bank of Japan's Policy Board meeting, which concludes on Tuesday. Hopes of further monetary easing are high, but we see two risks. The first is simply that the Bank... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Wave of data should support recovery hopes The coming week is packed with key data, the bulk of which should be relatively upbeat. The markets will focus on the Tankan, but the monthly business surveys for September should also be reassuring... 27th September 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will intervention work? There has been much fruitless speculation over whether the Japanese authorities want the yen to fall back sharply or just want to see it stabilise. We do not believe there is any such “grand plan”... 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
