Japan Economics Weekly How Japanese GDP can grow by 4.5% The attention of the markets is understandably elsewhere right now. Nonetheless, for the record, the first quarter GDP data kept Japan’s economy on course to grow by at least 4.0% in 2010. Our top of... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP growth to top 4% this year Japan’s economy is starting to fire on all cylinders. We expect another robust gain of around 1.5% in first quarter GDP (preliminary official data will be released on Thursday). Our growth forecast of... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Unambitious fiscal plan to test markets’ patience The DPJ’s economic and fiscal plan, due to be unveiled next month, is likely to be criticised on at least two counts: that the proposed target for the budget balance would still leave debt at very... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan dodges Greek crisis... for now The market reaction to the recent events in Greece shows that Japan is still seen as a safe haven rather than one of the next countries in line for a public finance crisis. This makes sense. In... 3rd May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Japan be doing more? Tensions between the Bank of Japan and the government over the need for further monetary stimulus remain high. We can see a number of good reasons for the Bank to resist that pressure for a few months... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What's the best use of a consumption tax hike? Finance Minister Kan's suggestion that any hike in the consumption tax should be used to increase government spending would risk backfiring in the markets. Even if increased public spending in certain... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What does renminbi appreciation mean for the yen? Speculation of an imminent resumption of renminbi appreciation has been supporting other Asian currencies against the dollar, including the yen. However, we would give this factor very little weight... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen heading for 100 against the dollar The past week’s Japanese data included some soft spots, but they were not bad enough on their own to justify a more bearish view on the yen. The relative optimism about the US economy and expectations... 5th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Risks to JGB yields shifting to the upside We are raising our forecasts for 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to a peak of 1.75% later this year (from around 1.40% on Friday). This may not sound like much, but in the context of... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Small is beautiful In contrast to the position in many other major economies, notably the US, Japan’s broad-based recovery is helping firms of all sizes. Along with the relative strength of consumer confidence, this is... 22nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A closer look at the GDP data The latest suggestions that official statisticians are engaged in some fiendish conspiracy to manipulate Japan’s GDP data are on very shaky ground. We continue to expect growth of around 3.0% in 2010... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook is the biggest risk to the yen The government is due to announce its medium-term fiscal plans in June. Either this will mark the start of a long period of fiscal restraint, weakening the economy again and requiring further monetary... 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How far can we trust the GDP data? The 1.1% q/q increase reported in the preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter of last year continues to be viewed with scepticism by many analysts. In some cases this may simply be an attempt to... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The bumblebee economy Scientists have reportedly proved that bumblebees cannot fly because of their awful aerodynamics (the bees, not the experts). Fortunately, the insects just carry on regardless. Sometimes it feels the... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Still positive on stocks and bonds Recent market moves have supported our relatively positive views on the outlook both for Japanese equities and Japanese government bonds (JGBs). 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q4 GDP to beat consensus Our analysis suggests that Japan’s GDP grew by around 1.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of last year. Consensus forecasts are also coming in fairly strong, but our forecast is still top of the range. 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
