Japan Economics Weekly Two positives for Golden Week Much of our recent coverage of the Japanese economy has been distinctly gloomy, summed up in our forecast that GDP will fall outright this year. This view has been supported by the recent activity... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Taking stock: the economic impact of the earthquake In the six weeks since the earthquake, largely survey-based evidence has pointed to a sharp downturn in activity and sentiment in March. A flurry of official data before the Golden Week holidays begin... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Little room for manoeuvre in public finances The chances of an imminent fiscal crisis may be small, but public finances have limited room fo rmanoeuvre. Another shock to the economy or investor confidence could mark a tipping point in the... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What will the disaster do to inflation? Japanese inflation was always likely to turn positive this year due to commodity price movements and base effects in the year-on-year comparison. The recent disaster means inflation is likely to be... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Risk of fiscal crisis growing Some commentators have argued that Japan’s ability to sell assets or print money to service its government debt means it makes no sense to worry about a “fiscal crisis”. The chances that the Japanese... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Big downside risks to the Tankan The risks to the markets from the Tankan seem to be skewed in just one direction . If the results o fthe Q1 survey published on Friday are in line or slightly better than consensus, they could be... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why it's worse than Kobe The Japanese economy as a whole managed to shrug off the impact of the Kobe earthquake in 1995. However, this time it’s different: the recent disaster has had national effects and the blow to... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly National disaster The Bank of Japan has announced that the two-day Policy Board meeting previously scheduled for Monday and Tuesday will now be cut short to one day and conclude on Monday. No reason was given, but the... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A long week in politics Prime Minister Kan is pushing his budget through parliament but will face a much tougher time passing the financing bills required to fund it. The opposition may only play ball if he tenders his... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Another headwind Japan could do without We expect the latest spike in oil prices to be short-lived as fears over supply from the Middle East and North Africa start to ease. Nonetheless, Japanese inflation will pick up further in the coming... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery cannot rely on exports alone Export-oriented manufacturing now appears to be picking up again after the double-dip in the second half of 2010. However, this is not enough on its own to justify a much more optimistic assessment of... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Investment spending to remain sluggish Hopes that weakness in consumer spending and exports could be at least partly offset by a strong rebound in investment have been further undermined by the latest data on machinery orders and shipments... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slipping back into recession The Japanese economy almost certainly contracted in the final quarter of 2010 as government subsidies were withdrawn. The consensus view is that this is not a major concern because GDP is widely... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Three ways the fiscal crisis could play out The potential market implications of a fiscal crisis may not be as clear cut as some assume, particularly for JGBs, but it is hard to see any outcome that does not involve some further weakness both... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Faltering recovery adds to fiscal challenges The appointment of Kaoru Yosano as Minister for the Economy and Fiscal Policy has revived discussion of the case for a hike in the consumption tax, but no decision is likely until mid-year at the... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Rearranging the deckchairs In light of our growing concerns about the outlook for Japan’s economy and the risks of a fiscal crisis, we are cutting our end-2011 forecast for the Nikkei 225 from 10,750 to 9,000. This might appear... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
