Japan Economics Weekly A long week in politics Prime Minister Kan is pushing his budget through parliament but will face a much tougher time passing the financing bills required to fund it. The opposition may only play ball if he tenders his... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Another headwind Japan could do without We expect the latest spike in oil prices to be short-lived as fears over supply from the Middle East and North Africa start to ease. Nonetheless, Japanese inflation will pick up further in the coming... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery cannot rely on exports alone Export-oriented manufacturing now appears to be picking up again after the double-dip in the second half of 2010. However, this is not enough on its own to justify a much more optimistic assessment of... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Investment spending to remain sluggish Hopes that weakness in consumer spending and exports could be at least partly offset by a strong rebound in investment have been further undermined by the latest data on machinery orders and shipments... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slipping back into recession The Japanese economy almost certainly contracted in the final quarter of 2010 as government subsidies were withdrawn. The consensus view is that this is not a major concern because GDP is widely... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Three ways the fiscal crisis could play out The potential market implications of a fiscal crisis may not be as clear cut as some assume, particularly for JGBs, but it is hard to see any outcome that does not involve some further weakness both... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Faltering recovery adds to fiscal challenges The appointment of Kaoru Yosano as Minister for the Economy and Fiscal Policy has revived discussion of the case for a hike in the consumption tax, but no decision is likely until mid-year at the... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Rearranging the deckchairs In light of our growing concerns about the outlook for Japan’s economy and the risks of a fiscal crisis, we are cutting our end-2011 forecast for the Nikkei 225 from 10,750 to 9,000. This might appear... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A cautionary note on Japanese equities Optimism about the global economy and buoyancy in overseas markets has allowed the Nikkei to start the year positively. But while Japanese equities may still appear to be relatively cheap compared to... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How it could all go horribly wrong Markets are in a festive mood, but the more we think about the near-term prospects for the Japanese economy, the less merry we become. Indeed, it now seems more likely than not that Japan will stumble... 24th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession risks growing GDP will almost certainly fall in the current quarter but we are increasingly concerned that it may drop further in the first three months of 2011 as well, meaning that Japan will technically be in... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Upside risks to the Tankan Japan will almost certainly top the G7 league table for GDP growth in 2010 (with Germany the likely runner-up), but this rebound has to be seen in the context of a relatively low starting point... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't write off the recovery in manufacturing Japan's manufacturing sector has continued to weaken despite signs that industrial activity is picking up again in other major economies after a slowdown in the summer. This period of underperformance... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More to the inflation story than just the core The consensus is usually right to focus on the core measures of Japan’s CPI when looking at the prospects for a permanent end to deflation and the implications for monetary policy. Nonetheless, trends... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by the return of "inflation" Consumer prices probably rose year-on-year in October for the first time since 2008, but this would not mark the end of deflation in any meaningful sense. Aside from the occasional spike into positive... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q3 strong, but Q4 much weaker Monday's GDP figures for the third quarter should look good, with above-consensus growth of 1% (or more) quarter-on-quarter driven by domestic demand. However, the profile of the recent monthly data... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
