Japan Economics Weekly Debt sustainability, early evidence of coronavirus drag The ratio of Japan’s public debt to GDP will probably keep rising over the coming decades. But with the Bank of Japan set to keep a lid on borrowing costs, it’s hard to make the case that public debt... 14th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Impact of coronavirus on industry, workstyle reforms While the coronavirus is already hurting tourism, China’s intensified efforts to contain the virus have presented another potential obstacle for the Japanese economy. Meanwhile, more companies... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe nominates reflationist, Japanification, coronavirus Discussion of “Japanification” amongst BoJ Policy Board members last week prompted one member to propose that the Bank review its monetary policy settings. And this week, PM Abe nominated reflationist... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wuhan virus threat, BoJ’s forward guidance The surge in inbound tourism in general and in Chinese tourist arrivals in particular means that the Wuhan coronavirus may knock off around 0.5%-pt from GDP growth in the first quarter. Amid mounting... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FSA’s sweeping reforms, BoJ cuts regional assessment Proposals to allow regional banks to diversify into non-banking business could help to reduce their overreliance on dwindling interest income. But in a sector famed for its conservatism, business... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Diminishing capacity shortages won’t prompt rate cuts Capacity shortages remained pronounced on the eve on the sales tax hike. And even though we expect the output gap to decline a bit over the coming months, that probably won’t trigger additional easing... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP still likely to shrink this year The economy appears to have weathered October’s sales tax hike better than many had feared. But with industrial production set to record the steepest quarterly fall since the Great East Japan... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ back in its comfort zone as 2020 approaches The most reliable measure of consumption showed a rather smaller drop in spending in October. The upshot is that the contraction in Q4 GDP probably won’t be as severe as we had anticipated. Meanwhile... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan on prolonged hold Weak activity data suggest that GDP may have contracted by 1.0% q/q in the fourth quarter and we still expect the economy to shrink next year rather than expand as most anticipate. However, with the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Falling profits, fiscal stimulus inflation The fiscal stimulus package announced this week is unlikely to lift growth meaningfully as most of the spending will merely offset the impact of previous stimulus measures unwinding. And with... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy spluttering, Korea tensions thaw The plunge in retail sales and factory output following the 1 st October sales tax hike points towards a sharp contraction in GDP this quarter. However, we think there are still reasons to believe the... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe makes history, supplementary budget, 50-yr JGBs? Shinzo Abe became Japan’s longest serving Prime Minister this week but his track record on the economy is mixed. Meanwhile, the ¥10 trillion supplementary budget that the government are reportedly... 22nd November 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Impact of tax hike on consumption set to remain small Private consumption growth in Q3 was much weaker than ahead of the 1997 and 2014 sales tax hikes. While that’s partly because underlying consumer demand is subdued, the muted spending rush on durables... 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government heeds Kuroda’s call for fiscal stimulus The Bank of Japan has urged the government to address the mounting downside risks to economic activity with additional spending and the government has confirmed it will do so. Meanwhile, the available... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Markets expect BoJ rate cut next year, we don’t The surge in retail sales in September increases the chances of a steep slump in spending after the sales tax hike on 1 st October. And the rise in the unemployment rate in September suggests that... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to remain on hold next week We now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25bp next week, which could result in a renewed strengthening of the yen and increase the pressure on the Bank of Japan to lower... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
