Japan Economics Weekly Upper House elections, higher Nikkei forecasts The ruling coalition will probably defend its two-thirds majority at the Upper House election on 21 st July. That means continued fiscal tightening, ultra-loose monetary policy and little progress on... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Post-Olympics public spending boost, BoJ holding firm Japan’s government appears to be lining up a stimulus programme to prevent an economic downturn after the Tokyo Olympics next year. While increased public spending would provide a welcome boost to GDP... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe blowing his own trumpet a little too loudly PM Abe has presided over a sharp increase in employment since he returned to power in 2012. But productivity growth has been very weak, red tape remains prevalent and there are still too few foreign... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan caught in the crossfire While it hopes to secure its own trade deal with the US before long, Japan risks getting caught in the crossfire of other US trade disputes. The prospect of a 25% tariff on all goods imported from... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Japan boost fiscal spending to raise inflation? Some commentators have proposed that Japan should raise public spending to boost inflation, which would allow the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. But given that the economy is operating at full... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Abe will probably press ahead with sales tax hike The Q1 GDP figures overstated the health of the economy and we expect a renewed slowdown in the second quarter. But with domestic demand still rising at a healthy pace and the unemployment rate at the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sales tax hike delay & trade war woes The government downgraded its assessment of economic conditions this week, prompting renewed speculation that the sales tax hike scheduled for 1 st October will be delayed yet again. However, with the... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth not as weak as official data suggest The government admitted in January that sampling errors had resulted in wage growth being overstated in 2018. Unfortunately, the government has added to concerns over the accuracy of the wage data by... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Imperial succession & trade talks The reduction in the number of working days will reduce the annual growth rate of industrial production and exports but it will have no impact on the more closely-watched monthly changes. Nor will it... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP’s election woes The LDP’s recent by-election defeats have generated speculation that the party may do poorly in July’s Upper House election and that the government may delay October’s sales tax hike yet again. But... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Mobile tariff cuts add to drag on inflation Inflation will probably turn negative yet again over coming months once we strip out of the impact of October’s sales tax hike. However, that partly reflects one-off price cuts that have been flagged... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Childcare boost & trade negotiations The introduction of free childcare for children aged three to five and for those below three years of age from low-income families should encourage even more women to join the workforce. Improved... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Capacity constraints set to loosen again soon The Bank of Japan’s claims that capacity shortages were the most pronounced since the early 1990s last year jar with the slowdown in economic activity and the fact that underlying inflation remains... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may be on course to sell JGBs The sharp fall in JGB yields in recent weeks means that the Bank of Japan will probably lower its JGB purchases more quickly than we had anticipated. In fact, there’s a chance that the Bank may soon... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What would it take to scrap the sales tax? Japan’s economy on some measures is weaker now than it was on the two previous occasions when Prime Minister Abe announced a delay to the planned sales tax hike, so it is perhaps not surprising that... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation target in question again The wisdom of the Bank of Japan sticking with an inflation target it can’t reach is being questioned again, including by Japan’s finance minister this week. But all alternatives would be worse. And... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
