Japan Economics Weekly Bank mergers to lift profits, trade deal back on agenda Upcoming regulatory changes reported this week should help support an increase in bank profits and thereby neutralise one of the key arguments for why the Bank of Japan should reverse its ultra-loose... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Property prices near bubble peak, Abe gets a lifeline The LDP’s proposal to do away with term limits for the Prime Minister will make little difference to the outlook for Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, we aren’t overly worried about the continued surge in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth outlook worsening The survey evidence suggests that the economy is losing momentum and we’ve lowered our GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 0.5%. If the economy records yet another quarter of falling output, we suspect PM... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Firms pulling in their horns Corporate investment has been a key driver of domestic demand in Japan recently, underpinned by healthy profits and the growing capacity constraints that resulted from a prolonged period of above... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly 20 years of ZIRP This week’s “shunto” spring wage negotiations got underway against an inauspicious backdrop, with corrected official data showing that real wages didn’t rise at all last year. Next week, Japan’s zero... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q4 rebound, immigration boost The final few releases of December spending and output data have provided reassurance that Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4. But the early signs for the current quarter are not at all... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Exports slump as tech sector cools A shocking set of export figures this week may have been worsened by specific troubles in the tech sector. But a deterioration in the global environment is likely to be an increasing headwind for the... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households upbeat, but still price sensitive Japanese households are more positive about current economic conditions than they have been for many years but they report still being highly price sensitive, and their worries about the outlook have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Unemployment nearing a floor, wage confusion It increasingly appears that Japan’s unemployment rate is bottoming out. Recent data suggest that wage growth is picking up, but the surge that some policymakers had hoped for at this point in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sub-zero JGBs renewing financial stability concerns The yield on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds turned negative again this week, for the first time since shortly after the “around zero” target was adopted in 2016. This may rattle some of the more... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Shadows over 2019 lift We expect the global economy to slow further next year which will be a headwind to trade. But the government has recognised the threat to domestic demand posed by next year’s sales tax hike and... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly JGB yields slide, tourists turn away Ten-year Japanese government bond yields this week dropped back to below their level when the Bank of Japan widened the tolerance band in July. The stealth tightening that some talked of at the time... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The puzzle of low wage growth One explanation for the persistent weakness of wage growth in Japan, despite the tightness of the labour market, is that employment growth has been skewed towards positions with low hours and low pay... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy rebounding, government details tax offsets This week brought reassurance that the contraction in the economy in Q3 was largely due to one-off factors. The early signs are that there has been a strong rebound this quarter. In the week ahead... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Oil and inflation, Ghosn and corporate governance The slump in global oil prices will deliver a windfall to Japanese firms and households but it creates a headache for the Bank of Japan: lower energy prices will knock half a percentage point off... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy contracting, Japan still loves cash The contraction in Q3 GDP that was confirmed this week is likely to be followed by a rebound over coming quarters. But the bigger picture is that growth momentum has weakened since last year and... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
