Japan Economics Weekly Services spending slumps, spectre of new wave The Bank of Japan’s broad measure of consumption released today reveals an unprecedented collapse in services spending in April. That supports our below-consensus forecast that GDP will contract by 9%... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly April probably the nadir, but recovery slow going The slump in activity in April was worse than most had anticipated. While domestic demand will rebound now that the state of emergency has come to an end, we think it will take until 2022 for GDP to... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running The resilience of imports in both March and April has prompted us to significantly revise up our forecast for Q2 goods and services imports. However, the nature of the current downturn means that... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound in activity to underwhelm The government has now ended the state of emergency in prefectures accounting for around 60% of economic activity. As such, economic activity is set to rebound. However, we expect the recovery to... 15th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lockdown set to loosen in some regions The government confirmed this week that the nationwide state of emergency will be extended until 31 st May. But with daily cases slowing, some local authorities have signalled they are considering... 8th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Extension of state of emergency to weigh on spending The government will extend the state of emergency at least until the end of May. We continue to expect GDP to fall by 12% q/q in Q2. Meanwhile, the government has started a review of Japan’s outdated... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bankruptcies set to rise despite public loan provision Loan demand is set to surge as firms’ revenues slump in the wake of virus outbreak. Unfortunately, Japanese banks will probably respond to the economic downturn by tightening lending standards. Most... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government mulling additional support The government has now expanded the state of emergency from the initial seven prefectures to the entire country, allowing prefectural authorities to request citizens to stay at home. The experience... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lockdowns to result in double-digit fall in GDP in Q2 The recent acceleration in the number of new coronavirus cases has prompted the government to declare a state of emergency this week. So far, Japan hasn’t moved to a full lockdown as people are still... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Feb resilience, second wave of containment measures There is increasing speculation that some parts of Japan could face lockdowns in coming days. But consumer behaviour is already changing without formal restrictions being imposed, in response to the... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Corona complacency risks faster spread Survey data point to a sharp fall in economic activity in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Admittedly, there were some signs that activity was picking up again in the second half of March. But as... 27th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Domestic lockdown eased as global outlook worsens Rapidly rising infection numbers in Europe and North America have prompted many government in those countries to roll out strict nationwide lockdowns. By contrast, there were signs of Japan’s already... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Growing evidence that economic activity is collapsing We now expect Japan’s economy to contract by 2% this year. There is mounting evidence that consumers are self-isolating which is weighing on household spending and passenger transport. School closures... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession appears baked in, fresh stimulus on the way Consumer spending has rebounded from the slump caused by October’s sales tax hike and we’ve pencilled in a rise in the first quarter. But the coronavirus is likely to result in a renewed slowdown over... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Coronavirus starting to take a toll The coronavirus will probably result in a contraction in output in countries that account for 40% of Japan’s export in the first quarter. That means that we are now expecting an even larger drop in... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to stick to its guns We have long argued that Japan’s economy will shrink this year and the recent string of bad news has only made that outcome more likely. But we still don’t expect the Bank of Japan to respond with... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
