Japan Economics Weekly Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery Following a huge drop in Q2, GDP is set to rebound sharply this quarter. The second virus wave already shows signs of slowing again and we think it merely brought the recovery in domestic demand to a... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Signs spread of virus slowing, opposition party merger While it’s too early to jump to any firm conclusions, the slowing spread of the virus over the past week lends support to our view that the economy will be able to rebound strongly in the second half... 14th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumption to rebound despite states of emergency Three of Japan’s 47 prefectures have reintroduced states of emergency over the past few days, and we think that more will follow over the coming weeks. As such, the recovery in economic activity is... 7th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economic activity holding up, 70% telework target The measures announced by local governments this week to contain the “second wave” of coronavirus cases will probably have to be tightened further in some regions. But they’re unlikely to be draconian... 30th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tokyo & Osaka diverge, business investment resilient? Cases are now rising fast across most major Japanese cities and hit a record high at the national level this week. However, the leaders of the country’s two major metropolitan areas have put forward... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Promotion of domestic travel could backfire With cases continuing to surge in Tokyo and now rising fast in Osaka, now might seem like a strange time to promote domestic tourism. However, the government’s “Go To” travel campaign is due to begin... 17th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Restrictions may return in Tokyo New confirmed coronavirus cases in Tokyo hit a record high of 224 today, exceeding the peak of 206 during the state of the emergency in April. While authorities in Australia and the US are responding... 9th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Renewed spike in virus cases to prevent full recovery The May activity data were consistent with our below-consensus forecast of a 9% q/q drop in Q2 GDP. Consumption should rebound more forcefully over the coming months as households receive cash... 3rd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly April support still not fully spent as new dose readied There is growing public frustration over how long it is taking for households to receive government support funds. Over 40% still haven’t received the ¥100,000 windfall promised by the government in... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Too much paperwork, fewest bankruptcies since 1964 Some companies that have had to furlough workers appear to be judging that applying for the government’s wage subsidy programme is more trouble than it’s worth. Nonetheless, the number of firms... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Reopening drive gathering pace, immigration failure The Tokyo government announced this week that it will join the rest of the country and allow all types of businesses to open from Friday next week. But while that’s good news for consumer spending, we... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Services spending slumps, spectre of new wave The Bank of Japan’s broad measure of consumption released today reveals an unprecedented collapse in services spending in April. That supports our below-consensus forecast that GDP will contract by 9%... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly April probably the nadir, but recovery slow going The slump in activity in April was worse than most had anticipated. While domestic demand will rebound now that the state of emergency has come to an end, we think it will take until 2022 for GDP to... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running The resilience of imports in both March and April has prompted us to significantly revise up our forecast for Q2 goods and services imports. However, the nature of the current downturn means that... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound in activity to underwhelm The government has now ended the state of emergency in prefectures accounting for around 60% of economic activity. As such, economic activity is set to rebound. However, we expect the recovery to... 15th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lockdown set to loosen in some regions The government confirmed this week that the nationwide state of emergency will be extended until 31 st May. But with daily cases slowing, some local authorities have signalled they are considering... 8th May 2020 · 4 mins read
