Japan Economics Weekly JGB yields to rise next year despite lower BoJ buying The Bank of Japan is on course to reduce its government bond holdings next year. But the Bank is merely reacting to market conditions rather than setting the tone itself. Our view that risk aversion... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Supermarket sweep, cash’s reign under threat The boom and bust in supermarket sales around last week’s sales tax hike has been interpreted by some as a sign the government’s countermeasures are not working. Afterall, most food is exempt from the... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Are we any closer to a rate cut? This week brought more evidence that consumers rushed to bring forward spending ahead of the tax hike that took place on Tuesday. Meanwhile, capacity shortages are diminishing and firms are becoming... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kuroda targets short end, “phenomenal” trade deal The shift in the Bank of Japan’s bond purchases from long towards short maturities has helped to lift very long-term yields from their recent lows. And if US Treasury yields rise further next year... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10% sales tax, could BoJ change tiering system? With the 1 st October sales tax hike fast approaching, we think the government’s countermeasures will ensure consumer spending doesn’t fall off a cliff next month, as it did after the previous tax... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Is it time to do the twist again? 10-year government bond yields have rebounded this week but are still at the lower end of the BoJ’s tolerance band. Some commentators have suggested that the Bank will cut the short-term policy rate... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak consumer confidence, BoJ pre-emptive easing? The recent slump in consumer confidence underlines that consumer spending will fall sharply after October’s sales tax hike. But it doesn’t tell us much about the extent of the slowdown and the fact... 6th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Regional banking shake-up gathering momentum Japan’s banking regulator announced this week several measures to accelerate consolidation in the ailing regional banking sector. The changes should discourage banks from taking on too much risk... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Subsidies for Lost Generation, rugby spending boost The planned subsidies to encourage firms to hire more regular workers may lift wage growth a bit. Meanwhile, the upcoming Rugby World Cup could provide a welcome boost to demand as it will happen... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly What drove strong consumer spending in Q2? While many commentators have attributed the strength in Q2 consumer spending to purchases being brought forward ahead of the sales tax hike, we think it had more to do with the longer-than-usual... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen adds to speculation over policy easing The renewed escalation of trade tensions has pushed the yen to a 17-month high against the dollar. We consider it very unlikely that the government will respond by intervening on the foreign exchange... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tax hike cushion, minimum wage, whitelist exclusion This week brought more evidence that the swing in consumer spending around October’s sales tax hike is likely to be much more modest than around the previous hike in 2014. Implementation of the... 2nd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Koreans boycott Japan, constitutional reform in doubt The economic impact of the Japan-Korea trade dispute is broadening as many South Koreans start to boycott Japan as a holiday destination. Booking of trips to Japan have halved and cancellations of... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto suggests wage growth is stagnating This year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in pay hikes that aren’t any stronger than those agreed upon a year ago. That’s rather disappointing given how tight the labour market is. Meanwhile... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Regional bank tie-up a step in the right direction Regional banks’ health has deteriorated as the population is shrinking and the number of firms is falling. As such, the cooperation between two of the largest regional banks that was announced this... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan’s tax structure still far from ideal Prime Minister Abe has pledged that following the increase in the sales tax rate to 10% in October, the tax won’t be raised for another ten years. We agree that there is no pressing need to boost... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
