Japan Economics Weekly Airports crowded again, firms awash with cash The second wave of coronavirus infections hurt consumption more than we were anticipating in July. But early signs are that spending picked up in August and has surprised to the upside this month, so... 25th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Suga, September recovery, inflation distortion Public approval for PM Suga’s new cabinet has surged to levels not seen for the entirety of PM Abe’s eight years in charge. That raises the possibility of Mr Suga winning a full three-year term at... 18th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Business investment plunging, money supply soaring Revised data show a slump in business investment in Q2 and we believe that capital spending won’t recover until next year. By contrast, the money supply is going from strength to strength. With around... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Suganomics differ from Abenomics? Suga Yoshihide is widely expected to stay the course on Abenomics if he succeeds Mr Abe as Prime Minister, as seems likely. However, he has indicated that he wants the Bank of Japan to provide more... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Abe stepping down, restrictions unwinding. PM Abe confirmed today that he will step down as PM due to health concerns, but we don’t expect major changes in economic policy. Meanwhile, with daily virus cases continuing their downward trend... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery Following a huge drop in Q2, GDP is set to rebound sharply this quarter. The second virus wave already shows signs of slowing again and we think it merely brought the recovery in domestic demand to a... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Signs spread of virus slowing, opposition party merger While it’s too early to jump to any firm conclusions, the slowing spread of the virus over the past week lends support to our view that the economy will be able to rebound strongly in the second half... 14th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumption to rebound despite states of emergency Three of Japan’s 47 prefectures have reintroduced states of emergency over the past few days, and we think that more will follow over the coming weeks. As such, the recovery in economic activity is... 7th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economic activity holding up, 70% telework target The measures announced by local governments this week to contain the “second wave” of coronavirus cases will probably have to be tightened further in some regions. But they’re unlikely to be draconian... 30th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tokyo & Osaka diverge, business investment resilient? Cases are now rising fast across most major Japanese cities and hit a record high at the national level this week. However, the leaders of the country’s two major metropolitan areas have put forward... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Promotion of domestic travel could backfire With cases continuing to surge in Tokyo and now rising fast in Osaka, now might seem like a strange time to promote domestic tourism. However, the government’s “Go To” travel campaign is due to begin... 17th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Restrictions may return in Tokyo New confirmed coronavirus cases in Tokyo hit a record high of 224 today, exceeding the peak of 206 during the state of the emergency in April. While authorities in Australia and the US are responding... 9th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Renewed spike in virus cases to prevent full recovery The May activity data were consistent with our below-consensus forecast of a 9% q/q drop in Q2 GDP. Consumption should rebound more forcefully over the coming months as households receive cash... 3rd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly April support still not fully spent as new dose readied There is growing public frustration over how long it is taking for households to receive government support funds. Over 40% still haven’t received the ¥100,000 windfall promised by the government in... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Too much paperwork, fewest bankruptcies since 1964 Some companies that have had to furlough workers appear to be judging that applying for the government’s wage subsidy programme is more trouble than it’s worth. Nonetheless, the number of firms... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Reopening drive gathering pace, immigration failure The Tokyo government announced this week that it will join the rest of the country and allow all types of businesses to open from Friday next week. But while that’s good news for consumer spending, we... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
