Japan Economics Weekly Recovery slowing, but prospects brightening for 2021 The latest data suggest that the recovery in output has continued apace in recent months. Admittedly, the third virus wave will probably act as a brake on the recovery for now. But with vaccines set... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Infections rising again, “Go To” still alive and kicking Daily cases have started creeping higher again at the national level driven by a renewed rise in infections in Tokyo and Osaka. We suspect that both cities will soon ask citizens to stay at home and... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccines stoke Tokyo’s Olympic flame With many local authorities rolling out fresh restrictions this week, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the third wave will weigh on activity over the near term. But while we’ve revised down our... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Restaurant boost, third outbreak set to be worst yet Output recovered just over half of its H1 plunge last quarter. The onus is on services consumption to recover most of the remaining half – services spending was still 9% below its Q4 2019 level last... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccine news boosts confidence in outlook While Japan’s stock market has largely shrugged off positive developments on the vaccine front, there’s little doubt that a vaccine would speed up the recovery of Japan’s services and export sectors... 12th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound continues, winter third wave? The surge in car sales last month brought further evidence that the economy has continued to rebound over the autumn months. Admittedly, a recent spike in coronavirus cases in Hokkaido – which proved... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Activity rebounding, fiscal stimulus set to disappoint The September activity data showed another strong rise in industrial production and support our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts. As such, it is not too worrying that the third supplementary... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong consumption data, loan growth coming off boil The Cabinet Office’s monthly measure of consumption released this week showed a substantial upward revision for July and a rebound in August. That indicates that the second wave of infections acted as... 23rd October 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fresh fiscal support likely as capital spending weakens The fiscal support provided by Japan’s government had started to look small compared to other large economies but PM Suga this week hinted that more spending is forthcoming. While the government has... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Overtaken on fiscal support Japan hasn’t announced any new fiscal support measures since May. As a result, the fiscal response – while colossal in normal circumstances – is starting to look small in comparison to elsewhere... 9th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Suga showing his true colours, recovery on track The decision by state-owned Nippon Telegraph & Telephone to take full ownership of its mobile phone arm seems to reflect pressure by new PM Suga. While Mr Abe tried to make companies more accountable... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Airports crowded again, firms awash with cash The second wave of coronavirus infections hurt consumption more than we were anticipating in July. But early signs are that spending picked up in August and has surprised to the upside this month, so... 25th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Suga, September recovery, inflation distortion Public approval for PM Suga’s new cabinet has surged to levels not seen for the entirety of PM Abe’s eight years in charge. That raises the possibility of Mr Suga winning a full three-year term at... 18th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Business investment plunging, money supply soaring Revised data show a slump in business investment in Q2 and we believe that capital spending won’t recover until next year. By contrast, the money supply is going from strength to strength. With around... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Suganomics differ from Abenomics? Suga Yoshihide is widely expected to stay the course on Abenomics if he succeeds Mr Abe as Prime Minister, as seems likely. However, he has indicated that he wants the Bank of Japan to provide more... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Abe stepping down, restrictions unwinding. PM Abe confirmed today that he will step down as PM due to health concerns, but we don’t expect major changes in economic policy. Meanwhile, with daily virus cases continuing their downward trend... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
