Global Economics Update PMIs: Virus hits services; further signs of shortages easing The Flash PMIs for December suggests that activity is slowing across advanced economies, as new virus waves and the emergence of the Omicron variant have already started to weigh on activity in the... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update There’s room for more fiscal support if needed Concerns about the new Omicron variant raise the question of whether there is scope for policy to be as supportive during a new wave of the virus as it has been so far in the pandemic. Significant... 9th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Coronavirus fears have resurged, with some restrictions being reimposed in Europe. So far, the hit to activity seems fairly modest, but it will be enough to see economic recoveries in the euro-zone... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show some signs of supply shortages easing November’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial production has continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year. There are tentative signs that supply disruptions may... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Renewed restrictions: inflationary or disinflationary? If Omicron turns out to be malign enough to prompt tighter restrictions, we suspect that the net result would initially be for inflation to be lower than otherwise. But by worsening product and... 1st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update First thoughts on Omicron It goes without saying that it’s still too early to say exactly how big a threat the new Omicron variant poses to the global economy. We’ll have more to say as the picture becomes clearer, but in the... 26th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Shortages exert further upward pressure on prices The Flash PMIs for November showed that although there are tentative signs that supply shortages are easing slightly, labour and product shortages are still weighing on recoveries in advanced... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global exposure to Turkey’s currency crisis With the Turkish lira down by 9% so far today and 20% over the past week, the currency is now firmly in crisis territory. Higher inflation and tighter domestic financial conditions are likely to sap... 23rd November 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Auto sector past its worst, but slow recovery ahead The slump in auto production related to supply chain disruptions has dragged down the pace of the global recovery this year. And while there have been some indications that supply of auto parts is... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Rising virus numbers have caused containment measures to be reimposed in Emerging Europe and now seem to be harming consumer activity in the euro-zone. There is a strong risk of further restrictions... 17th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest inflation data less worrying for the ECB than the Fed While inflation will stay well above target in both the US and Germany in the months ahead, the detail of the latest inflation prints seems to confirm that price pressures are likely to be much more... 11th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update “Excess” household savings could yet boost spending With household saving rates still elevated in most developed economies, “excess savings” have continued to rise. If people were to run down these savings, this would breathe new life into consumer... 9th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Best of the recovery now in the rear-view mirror The raft of Q3 data that have been released so far have been the proverbial mixed bag with some countries (g. France) reporting surprisingly strong growth and others (e.g. the US) surprising on the... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Still no sign of supply problems letting up The October manufacturing PMIs gave us more of the same – evidence that supply disruptions are getting worse, industrial output growth is weakening, and price pressures are intensifying. This fits... 2nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Services left to do the heavy lifting The flash PMIs for October brought news of an encouraging start to Q4 for services sector activity, alongside yet more evidence that shortages are holding back growth in industry and stoking even... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices won’t stop inflation falling next year The recent upward revision to our oil price forecast does little to alter our view that inflation will fall in 2022. Even if oil prices don’t fall as we expect them to and they stay at their current... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
