Global Economics Update Further weakness in store for world trade Not only did global goods trade fall in June, but timelier trade and survey data for July and August point to further declines. Meanwhile, with the lagged impact of high interest rates likely to weigh... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs raise recession risks again August’s flash PMIs support our view that both the euro-zone and UK will slip into recession in Q3 and imply that the US is now barely growing. And with output prices still easing gradually, the... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Ambition collides with reality at the BRICS summit China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Interest rate-sensitive activity still holding up Interest rate-sensitive activity in advanced economies has fallen, but is still holding up rather well given how much interest rates have risen. This is partly due to the rebound in auto sales and... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How many global risks lie in China's Country Garden The immediate global economic and market fallout from troubles at Chinese property developer Country Garden seems likely to be limited. Foreign exposure to China’s property sector has fallen sharply... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How much is fiscal policy supporting activity? With lingering pandemic and energy support measures coming to a close and governments returning one eye to previous fiscal targets, fiscal policy will tighten a little in advanced economies over the... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still flagging recession risk Even though the financial strains that emerged after SVB’s collapse have dissipated, interest rate hikes have left overall financial conditions in major advanced economies close to their tightest... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show no hint of a rebound in industry yet The latest PMIs suggest that the decline in global manufacturing activity has further to run. At least weak activity is weighing on price pressures, which should lead to further falls in core goods... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade probably hasn’t reached its trough yet Global goods trade rose slightly in May, but timelier data point to a renewed fall in June. And as spending patterns continue to normalise away from goods towards services at the same time as higher... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Clear signs that services activity is now slowing July’s flash PMIs suggest that activity slowed further at the start of Q3. Industry remains the weak spot, but the outlook for the services sector has also deteriorated noticeably. And while this... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update El Niño risks concentrated in EMs The likelihood of an El Niño event in the second half of this year adds to upside risks to global inflation and downside risks to activity. For the advanced economies, higher prices of agricultural... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Comparing the Fed’s new FCI to our own The Fed’s new FCI does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures. But our own FCI has had a better record at capturing turning points in real... 6th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand set to weigh on industry further The latest PMIs suggest that not only did global manufacturing activity contract at the end of Q2, but the outlook for the manufacturing sector also seems to have deteriorated further. At least the... 3rd July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade resumes its decline World trade fell in April and timelier data point to a further fall in May, partly due to a sharp drop in Chinese exports which reversed all of their rebound from earlier this year. And weak demand... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Growth slowing but services inflation still high June’s flash PMIs suggest that not only has activity in advanced economies slowed at the end of Q2, but the outlook has also deteriorated further. This is particularly true in the manufacturing sector... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
