Global Economics Update Enduring supply-chain woes risk stoking higher inflation Although China’s Omicron wave means that its economy is facing its sharpest slowdown since early 2020, so far it looks like disruptions to global supply chains will be milder than those experienced... 7th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: More shortages and higher inflation incoming The latest manufacturing PMIs suggested that the Ukraine war and Chinese lockdowns have so far had a fairly modest impact on output in the rest of world. However, they showed that firms expect the... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: growth resilient for now as price pressures mount The Flash PMIs for March suggest that there has been little impact on growth in advanced economies from the war in Ukraine so far, but there are some warning signs for the future. Supply shortages are... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tighter financial conditions point to sluggish growth Our proprietary Financial Conditions Indices suggest that global financial conditions have recently been as tight as they were during the China hard landing fears of 2015 and point to GDP growth... 23rd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The dollar won’t be toppled Claims that the war in Ukraine will prove to be a watershed moment that ends the dollar’s position at the heart of the global financial system are wide of the mark. It could accelerate the development... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Back to the 1970s? While the parallels with the 1970s have been building, we remain unlikely to see the scale of stagflation witnessed back then. The main difference now is the apparent determination of central banks to... 22nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update World GDP forecast revised down due to Ukraine war Since the onset of war in Ukraine, we have revised down our forecast for world GDP growth in 2022 from 4.0% to 3.2%. Outside Russia and Ukraine, our biggest downward revisions have been to other... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s export hubs in worst outbreak since Wuhan Half of China’s exports are produced in areas that are now experiencing COVID outbreaks and three quarters of its exports are shipped from them. It is still possible that infections can be suppressed... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks likely to push ahead with monetary tightening The latest surge in global commodity prices has intensified the dilemma facing the world’s major central banks: on the one hand it will push headline inflation (and inflation expectations) even higher... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial contagion and known unknowns The rest of the world’s direct financial exposure to Russia has fallen in recent years and, in aggregate, is now small. This limits the risk of financial contagion from the collapse in Russia’s... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of an end to Russian energy trade We think that a complete ban on Russian energy imports would cause the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gas to surge to $160pb and €300/MWh in the near term and settle at still very high... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic consequences of the war One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run... 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Industry rebounds from Omicron, but risks ahead The latest manufacturing PMIs add further evidence that the hit to industrial activity from Omicron was limited and should be short-lived. Although supply chain issues and price pressures no longer... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economy to weather conflict, but risks around supply The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has increased the risks posed to the global economy, but we still expect the broader effects to be relatively contained given limited trade and financial... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: a weekend catch-up On the military front, while events remain in flux, the Russian advance has proceeded more slowly than had been anticipated. Kyiv, seemingly Russia’s main target, remains under the control of Ukraine... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update 8 questions about the Russia-Ukraine crisis This Update answers eight key questions for economies and markets in light of the escalation in the Ukraine conflict overnight. All clients are invited to a Drop-In at 14.00 GMT/09.00 EST when our... 24th February 2022 · 8 mins read
