Global Economics Update Questions on a momentous week in central banking We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss recent developments in central banking and related financial market implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update House price falls loom Housing markets are now showing signs of starting to weaken. While the consensus is that house price inflation will merely slow, we expect outright prices to fall in several of the most vulnerable... 13th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Demand weakening but supply improving slightly The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial activity weakened a touch in May. But while the forward-looking components of the surveys imply that weaker demand will weigh on output in the... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update UK lagging behind in labour supply recovery It remains a mixed picture when it comes to how well the labour force is recovering in the wake of the pandemic. The recent improvement in some countries supports our view that much of the pandemic... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Equity price falls add to headwinds to growth Recent falls in equity prices have not prompted downgrades to our global growth forecasts since the passthrough to the real economy is limited and part of the bad news has already been factored in to... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Orders slowing and price pressures still acute The flash PMIs for May suggest that activity slowed in most DMs compared to April, and weaker growth in new orders points to a further slowdown to come. There were some positive developments on the... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Can we trust the PMIs after their undue optimism in Q1? The PMI surveys gave an overly optimistic steer of GDP growth in advanced economies in Q1. This partly reflected volatility in imports and inventories and the effects of COVID restrictions, all of... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Weakening economy will not do central banks’ job for them The cost of living squeeze will push net energy importers including the euro-zone and UK close to, or into, recession. While this will have some disinflationary effects in the medium-term, we doubt... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is a recession necessary to bring down inflation? Provided that supply-related price rises ease, we think that it is possible in theory for central banks to bring inflation down from its current high rates without engineering a recession. However... 16th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Food inflation to ease from high rates The sharp rise in agricultural commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine has boosted food inflation to a multi-decade high, adding 0.6%-pts to average inflation in advanced economies compared... 11th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation chipping away at public debt ratios One benefit of the current rise in inflation, at least for governments, is that it is eroding the real value of public sector debt. But this will reverse only a small part of the pandemic-related rise... 10th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions on the global economic outlook We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss our Q2 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers several of the excellent questions that we... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Q1 GDP data give a false steer on US vs euro-zone Uncharacteristically, euro-zone GDP rose while US GDP fell in Q1. But the weak outturn in the US partly reflected temporary factors and domestic spending remained much stronger than in the euro-zone... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Activity weakening as price pressures strengthen The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that activity got off to a weaker start in Q2, as lockdowns in China led to a sharp fall in activity there. Forward-looking components of the surveys – including... 2nd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Activity holding up, but price pressures still rising The Flash PMIs for April suggest that activity in advanced economies generally held up better than expected at the start of Q2, despite worries of a large hit to industry from lockdowns in China and... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Pandemic savings won’t prevent slowdown in spending Households and corporates in advanced economies amassed savings during the pandemic which could feasibly be used to support consumption and investment in the current environment of rising costs. But... 21st April 2022 · 4 mins read
