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Rebound in trade in March likely to be short-lived

Although world trade rebounded in March amid the reopening recovery in China, we don’t think this marks the beginning of a broader turnaround in global trade. In fact, timelier data point to renewed falls in April, and the latest business surveys suggest that the decline in export orders has accelerated. Despite weaker demand for traded goods, declining shipping container production has helped sea freight rates to stabilise around their pre-pandemic levels.

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