Global Economics Update How best to gauge underlying pay pressure If labour earnings growth took a decisive leg up, this would force central banks to rethink how long this year’s bout of higher inflation in advanced economies will last. The challenge is that the... 4th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Global PMIs flattening off at high levels The main takeaway from today’s batch of manufacturing PMIs is that industrial output growth looks to have peaked. Output indices have generally stopped rising, and new orders indices have come off the... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics The global implications of a slowdown in China The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some... 23rd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Limited signs of price pressures fading in the PMIs The overarching message from today’s batch of flash PMIs was that higher inflation isn’t going away anytime soon in major advanced economies. Some of the inflation indicators edged away from their... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Five lessons from reopening so far In this Update we identify five things that we have learned from reopening so far. Some we anticipated, including the rapid rebound in activity once restrictions were removed and an easing of trade... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Delta variant is a much bigger threat to EMs than DMs The apparent success of vaccines at preventing severe illness and death from the Delta coronavirus variant should mean that it does not pose a major threat to recoveries in most advanced economies... 14th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show industrial revival boosting prices further The dip in the global manufacturing PMI in June left it at a very high level, with the advanced economies leading a continued strong recovery in output. But industrial recoveries seem to have lost... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Reflationary recovery races on Inflation indicators in the flash PMIs for June reached new record highs and supplier delivery times lengthened still further. However, outside the US at least, there are few signs that goods... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How much of the rise in inflation is due to ‘base effects’? Much of the rise in inflation in major advanced economies from February to May has reflected the fact that prices fell in the same period a year ago. That said, depending on how you measure it, around... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Our Mobility Trackers show that global economic activity is benefitting from the removal of restrictions in advanced economies. Good progress with vaccinations suggests that this trend should continue... 17th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How concerning is the recent rise in inflation? A rise in inflation was always likely to happen this year as economies re-opened and energy prices recovered from last year’s sharp falls. But in the US in particular, the increase since the start of... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update G7 tax deal encouraging sign for cooperation among DMs The direct implications of this weekend’s deal on global corporate taxation struck by G7 finance ministers will be limited. But the deal suggests that wealthy nations have found renewed determination... 7th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy prevent economies reopening? 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: supply is struggling to keep up with demand The flash PMIs for May suggest that the recovery is well underway in those economies that are now on top of the virus. However, supply is still struggling to keep up with surging demand. And as well... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update US pay pressures are the exception, not the norm While pay growth has risen across the developed economies, in several cases this reflects reduced hours or the fact that a disproportionate number of low paid workers have lost their jobs. There are... 20th May 2021 · 4 mins read
