Global Economics Update The global implications of more US fiscal stimulus If passed in full, President Biden’s $1.9tn American Rescue Plan would constitute a fiscal stimulus worth 1.4% of global GDP, coming hot off the heels of the $900bn deal struck in December. While a... 24th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Mixed picture for pay pressures in major economies With vaccines improving the economic outlook and labour market data surprising to the upside, we have revised down our unemployment forecasts for almost all major economies. But wider measures of... 23rd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show supply disruptions are pushing up prices The batch of flash PMIs for February suggest that shipping constraints and some goods shortages are raising costs for manufacturers. There are some signs that these cost pressures are being passed on... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics The implications of sustained travel restrictions Taken alone, prolonged restrictions on international travel would do little to hinder the global recovery since overseas tourism is a small share of world GDP and some of the lost spending would be... 18th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor While new COVID-19 infections have dropped, our Mobility Trackers have shown only a slight pick-up in activity as tight restrictions remain in place in many economies. Vaccine rollouts have been slow... 18th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Corporate savings pose another upside risk When analysing the effect of COVID-19 on business balance sheets, most attention is given to the surge in debt. But this ignores the fact that non-financial firms in DMs have built up a pile of excess... 10th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update How supportive will fiscal policy be this year? One threat to economic recoveries this year is that governments withdraw their generous fiscal support too quickly. So far, that threat does not seem to be an imminent one. That said, the level of... 9th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilience of business services to cap falls in output Despite some dire public health situations, GDP outturns from the raft of recently released data have surprised on the upside in Q4. While some of the strength was due to industrial and construction... 3rd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Four questions (answers) on r/Wallstreetbets The volatility caused by retail investors co-ordinated on the r/Wallstreetbets forum does not pose a direct threat to the global economy, but it does illustrate some of the financial vulnerabilities... 1st February 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs provide first sign that external demand is faltering The global manufacturing PMI survey for January suggests that the industrial recovery lost a bit of steam at the start of the year. It also provided some evidence that, in addition to lengthening... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect from elections in 2021 In this Update, we take stock of the key elections that are scheduled around the world in the coming year and discuss the implications for economic policy. While elections in advanced economies are... 1st February 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Earned incomes to make up for tapering state support We expect household incomes to rise in most countries this year as easing restrictions allow people to get back to work. The outlook for incomes is brightest in North America, particularly given the... 28th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: US outperformance a sign of things to come The flash PMIs for January suggest that the US economy shrugged off containment measures at the start of 2021, but that restrictions did indeed weigh on activity elsewhere in DMs. The surveys also... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Surge in shipping costs adds to near-term price pressure The surge in global shipping costs over the past six months is likely to be short-lived and several factors will dampen the full pass-through to consumer prices. Even so, it adds to a growing list of... 19th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers point to weak start to 2021 Our COVID Mobility Trackers indicate that activity weakened towards the end of Q4, and data up to mid-January suggest that it took another leg down at the start of 2021. With countries still in the... 18th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Energy price inflation to drive up headline rates Advanced economy headline inflation rates are set to jump by an average of nearly 2%-pts in the coming months as energy inflation picks up and, in some cases, the effects of last year’s temporary cuts... 15th January 2021 · 4 mins read
