Global Economics Update Rebound in retail sales vulnerable to rise in virus cases There has been an encouraging rebound in retail sales across advanced economies as lockdowns have eased, driven by a pick-up in sales of discretionary items such as clothing and furniture and a shift... 16th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers: US recovery loses pace; euro-zone powers on In general, our Covid Recovery Trackers continued to improve at the end of Q2 and in the first ten days of July. Things are even looking up a bit in Latin America. But the US recovery risks going into... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Does GDP usually revert to trend after downturns? On the face of it, history doesn’t offer much reassurance that the world economy will be able to return to the path it would have been on had it not been for COVID-19. Indeed, looking back at all the... 13th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Renewed virus outbreaks support our cautious stance Renewed coronavirus outbreaks in some parts of the world have not caused us to rip up our economic forecasts. The initial stages of the recovery have been faster than we feared and we had always... 7th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers: Recovery stalls in US hotspots; Latam lags Our Recovery Trackers suggest that activity generally continued to rebound heading into Q3. But higher infections seem to have taken a toll in some US states, while Latam is the weakest link in the... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Industry rebound partial but rapid With lockdowns continuing to ease across the globe, it was of little surprise that the manufacturing PMIs rose in June. While the PMIs are still considerably below their pre-crisis levels, they have... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs add to upside risks to our Q2 forecasts The latest batch of DM flash PMIs generally came out below 50, which might suggest that output fell a bit further in June compared to May. But we should not read too much into the precise level of the... 23rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Daily Covid Recovery Trackers To help clients get a better sense of the state of recoveries around the world, we have collated some daily indicators that are available in almost all major economies to construct composite Covid... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How will the fiscal costs of the crisis be dealt with? This Update draws together the conclusions from the various pieces of research that we have published in recent weeks on how the fiscal costs of the crisis will be dealt with. In short, we are... 10th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The varying economic effects of the virus so far Data so far have shown a significant variation in how the virus has affected activity, with economies in Southern Europe hit very hard, the US suffering somewhat less and some Asian economies... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What primary balances are needed to stabilise debt ratios? Public sector debt to GDP ratios are going to rise sharply and, in most cases, governments can tolerate this. But to retain the faith of financial markets, they might still need to make sure that debt... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone incomes will be hit harder than US On the face of it, the surge in unemployment in the US implies that households are being hit harder by the crisis than those in Europe. But much of this reflects differences in the way that furloughed... 3rd June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slow industrial recovery May’s PMIs offer evidence that the global industrial sector is now on the slow road to recovery. But with demand extremely weak, activity is still far below normal levels and price pressures have... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Another global wave of austerity seems unlikely Unlike the period after the global financial crisis, we doubt that we will see a widespread trend of austerity to reduce public sector debt ratios. Nonetheless, austerity will still be undertaken in a... 26th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Debt monetisation: are we already there? On the face of it, it might look like major economies have not yet reached the stage of debt monetisation. Where central banks are buying government bonds, it is on the secondary market, is supposed... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Past the worst, but gradual recovery only May’s Flash PMIs revealed a partial rebound, suggesting that the global economy is past the nadir. But, the recovery in advanced economies appeared slower than that in China, and the services sector... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
