Global Economics Update Will the GDP figures fully capture the downturn? The upcoming GDP figures for developed markets will give an indication of the damage the coronavirus was already having by the end of the first quarter. However, even at the best of times, there are... 7th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Modelling the COVID-19 shock We have developed a 45-sector spreadsheet model that allows clients to design their own shutdown scenarios and assess the impact on GDP in 20 major economies. This tool helps to shed light on how the... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What China tells us about the likely shape of recovery The economic recovery underway in China gives some useful pointers to what lies ahead for the rest of the world. An initial increase in activity can happen rapidly once lockdown measures are eased... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs may understate severity of downturn March’s small rise in the global manufacturing PMI was driven entirely by a rebound in China and masked sharp declines elsewhere. The survey already points to falls in global production, but it is... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How quickly will the world economy rebound? The world is heading for the sharpest and deepest global slowdown since WW2. Assuming that the virus is brought under control within a few months, the subsequent rise in world GDP should also be sharp... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Services sector to bear the brunt of global recession Unlike in previous downturns, services are likely to underperform industrial sectors this time around. Consumer-facing services, such as leisure and hospitality, are suffering most already. As the... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The cost of the fiscal stimulus In this Update, we answer some key questions about the fiscal stimulus underway in advanced economies. In short, government deficits are set to soar, probably rising by more than after the financial... 26th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Services get pummelled in March; worse is to come The March Flash PMIs for advanced economies were dreadful. The composite PMI for DMs plummeted to a level just shy of its all-time low. With the lockdowns only getting underway, worse will come in... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions now as tight as during the GFC Financial conditions in advanced economies are now almost as tight as they were in 2009. So far, this has been the result of an economic shock rather than strains within the financial system itself... 23rd March 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How to think about the long-term effects of the virus The immediate effects of the coronavirus on the global economy are becoming increasingly clear and point to a sharp fall in output across the world. Recession looms. The effects over the longer term... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Downturn now set to be deeper than the financial crisis What were downside risks to the global economy just a few days ago are fast morphing into our central scenario. We now expect global GDP to fall by about 1% this year, which would be twice the decline... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Will fiscal policy ride to the rescue? With central banks already having used up most of their ammunition, we are now reliant on governments to prevent the global recession from turning into something even worse. We are optimistic that the... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Slump in tourism to knock 0.7% off world growth Travel and tourism is clearly one of the hardest hit sectors in the coronavirus crisis. In a realistic scenario where travel and tourism dropped by 50% for six weeks, annual global GDP growth would be... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What more can policymakers do? There is much more that central banks could do to ease any strains that appear in financial markets. But with interest rates now more or less back to their effective lower bound in the US, euro-zone... 16th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How much would school closures cost the economy? School closures are one of the main ways in which government attempts to manage the spread of the coronavirus will dent economic activity. While parents can work around the closures to some extent... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Can the virus be contained with little economic pain? Some countries have managed to control the new coronavirus without large-scale quarantines or economic shutdowns. But they have achieved this by preventing the virus from spreading within the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
