Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs holding up well ahead of lockdowns Manufacturing PMIs generally held their ground in October, suggesting that the industrial recovery made further headway, despite a resurgence of infections taking hold in the US and Europe... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Indian banks: the world’s weakest link Out of all the banking sectors in major economies, India’s warrants the most concern. It came into the crisis in the worst shape, and the scale of damage to private balance sheets means it will be one... 29th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Wage pressures strongest in the US With headline labour market figures affected by the various government support schemes, survey measures may provide a better indication of the true amount of slack in the labour market. These suggest... 28th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Fiscal outlook favours US and China over Europe and India While the COVID crisis has prompted an unprecedented fiscal response worldwide, there have been major differences between economies. The US saw large and immediate support, which has already expired... 27th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update DM divergence widens October’s batch of flash PMIs supports our view that divergences have emerged in advanced economies, both between sectors and between countries. With Europe dealing with second waves of infections and... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update New phase of the pandemic to hit Europe hardest While there has been some good news on virus numbers in India and Latin America, Europe and parts of the US are grappling with a big resurgence in infections. Restrictions have already been tightened... 19th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Rebound in DM retail sales less positive than it seems On the face of it, the rebound in retail sales in advanced economies suggests that the consumer sector is leading a V-shaped economic recovery. But other types of spending, including on consumer... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Gap in US/Europe core inflation is not all it seems The latest data have revealed a marked divergence in inflation among advanced economies, with the core rate rising in the US but falling in the euro-zone and the UK. This largely relates to temporary... 7th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Deglobalisation to continue whoever wins US election With the US election result likely to have limited near-term implications for world GDP, the main issue for the global economy is how it affects US trade policy. Joe Biden would take a less aggressive... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from the Q2 GDP Output Breakdown The output breakdown of Q2 GDP showed that virus containment measures hit the hospitality, recreation, and transport sectors hardest, while financial services were relatively unaffected. The more... 2nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest industrial recovery slowed by end of Q3 Today’s batch of manufacturing PMIs suggest that production continued to rebound in September, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the quarter. The big picture, though, is that the state of the... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from second virus waves The experience from second virus waves in Australia, New Zealand and Japan is that consumer spending falls even if governments don’t impose major restrictions. However, there are three key reasons why... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weakening DM recoveries September’s weak batch of flash PMIs suggest that the rebound in activity in DMs seen over the past few months is losing steam, even in the countries where virus numbers are falling. The risk now is... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of “second waves” The fact that most governments were caught on the backfoot in the early stages of the pandemic meant that they had little alternative but to respond with widespread lockdowns. Six months on, a... 22nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s rebound failing to rescue the global economy China’s economic rebound has been about as v-shaped as one could reasonably hope for – but it isn’t boosting growth elsewhere. 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from Australia’s average inflation targeting Inflation has been close to the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target since its launch in the 1990s, but this has come at the expense of soaring house prices and household debt. Australia’s... 15th September 2020 · 4 mins read
