Global Economics Update Risks to our upbeat view stem mainly from the virus Our GDP forecasts for this year sit some way above the rest of the market. The greatest risks to this upbeat view stem from unanticipated shifts in the virus and the fight against it, rather than the... 13th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The challenges facing rollouts of coronavirus vaccines The risks to vaccination programmes fall into three groups: procurement, deployment, and effectiveness. In the coming few months, deployment issues will be a key limiting factor in most countries... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Pandemic will not be the death of cities The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more... 5th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update The global state of play Developments from the past two weeks reinforce the message that 2021 will be a year of two halves for the world In the near term, high/rising infections in most major economies mean that restrictions... 4th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update 2021: a year of recovery, catch-up and accommodation We expect 2021 to be a better year for the global economy than most envisage. GDP growth in many major economies will surprise on the upside, with those that suffered the sharpest downturns this year... 17th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Four points on December’s batch of flash PMIs December’s flash PMIs revealed that restrictions in the euro-zone and the UK continue to weigh on services activity and that advanced economy manufacturing is still faring well. Meanwhile, building... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will households spend the extra money they have saved? One of the biggest upside risks to our forecasts is that households spend the extra savings that they have accumulated during the past few months. If they do, North America and the UK look likely to... 11th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update DM banks able to withstand higher defaults next year In Q3, the balance sheets of developed market banks were in good shape and credit losses stayed ultra-low. Defaults are likely to rise as policy support recedes, but we think the banks are well-placed... 3rd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest that industrial recovery is still robust in Q4 The global manufacturing PMI rose for the seventh consecutive month in November. Restrictions seem to have weighed on industry in parts of Europe, but nowhere near as much as in March and April. And... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update World forecasts revised up due to vaccine news While a difficult few months lie ahead for many economies, the news of effective vaccines has led us to revise up our world GDP growth forecast by 0.8%-pt and 0.5%-pt, to 6.8% and 4.6%, in 2021 and... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show resilience in industry & US economy so far As expected, today’s batch of flash PMIs confirmed that manufacturing has fared better than services in the face of the renewed virus wave. The strength of the US surveys was surprising and indicates... 23rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Strong housing markets give recoveries a helping hand A striking development in the past few months is how well housing markets in developed markets have generally been doing. We expect this to peter out next year, although in most cases house price... 19th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update How will vaccines be distributed? The news about effective vaccines has improved the global economic outlook and we think that most restrictions on activity in advanced economies will be removed by around Q2 next year. But... 17th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Economies after COVID The COVID pandemic will leave a profound economic legacy. But unlike previous crises, this will not necessarily manifest itself in much weaker rates of long-term economic growth. Instead, the economic... 17th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of job retention schemes Recent extensions to job retention schemes and hopes of a vaccine appear to have improved the outlook for labour markets. But there is still a risk that governments scale back support too quickly and... 16th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers: Second waves take their toll Mobility data up to 8 th November suggest that the recovery in developed and emerging Europe has already gone into reverse and that recoveries in other parts of the world are losing steam. 13th November 2020 · 2 mins read
