Global Economics Update Will rising labour supply help wage pressures to ease? One development that would help to ease wage pressures would be an increase in the labour supply; there is still a significant group of countries where the pandemic is having lingering effects. The... 28th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest DMs are dodging recession again in Q1 The flash PMIs for February provided more evidence that advanced economies have remained more resilient than expected so far this year. Both the manufacturing and services sectors contributed to this... 21st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Does unemployment need to rise? Central banks need wage growth to slow significantly before they can judge that inflation is firmly under control. The least painful way for this to happen is for the recent rise in “mismatch” between... 13th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued industrial downturn The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that output has continued to weaken, although the pace of contraction is slowing in several economies. Product shortages have diminished further at the global... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Don’t fret about QE losses The losses which central banks are now incurring on the bonds they bought via their quantitative easing (QE) programmes are not a big cause for concern. These losses will not compromise central banks’... 25th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: More evidence of divergence across DMs The flash PMIs for January provide further evidence that the euro-zone economy has so far avoided the deep downturn that most economists anticipated, whereas the US and UK surveys still point to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What explains the euro-zone’s resilience vs the US? Recent data have shown that activity in the US is weakening as we had expected while that in the euro-zone has been surprisingly resilient. The resilience seems to reflect a combination of supply and... 24th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economic fracturing in 2023 – new year, new risks The theme of global economic fracturing, which was the focus of our Spotlight Series of research last September, is at the centre of economic discussion in 2023, including at Davos. We held an online... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Housing downturns starting to take toll on economies Housing downturns are well underway in many countries and house prices and activity generally have further to fall. Construction activity is already suffering as a result. While it is hard to detect... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Upgrade to 2023 China forecast and its implications Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our forecast for growth there from 2.0% to 5.5%. This means that global GDP growth will be stronger than... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Reopening’s impact on inflation in China and abroad The shift toward living with COVID will put some upward pressure on prices in China. But the uptick in inflation will not be as large as that seen in many other countries as they emerged from COVID... 9th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Post-Christmas catch-up: The global state of play Developments of the past two weeks reinforce the message that the world economy is headed for recession and disinflation in 2023. With the full effects of policy tightening yet to be felt, and re... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest activity contracted in Q4 December’s flash PMIs suggest that the economic downturn in Q4 in Europe might not be as bad as previously feared. But the PMI fell sharply again in the US. And the surveys are still consistent with... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update 2023: Recession, disinflation – and eventually recovery Our 2023 prognosis may be a gloomy one, but there are reasons to expect conditions to brighten a bit by year-end. 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Digesting the upside surprises to food inflation While food inflation has surprised to the upside in major DMs, it seems to be at or near a peak. We expect a combination of base effects and an easing of underlying price pressures to drag on food... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show industrial downturn easing supply shortages The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial production is contracting, albeit with some signs of a slowdown in the pace of contraction in Europe. Product shortages have diminished... 1st December 2022 · 3 mins read
