Global Economics Update Central banks at a plateau, but what next and when? We held a Drop-In last week to explain our thoughts on the latest policy communications from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England following their decisions to leave rates on hold. (See the recording here... 6th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show no sign of recovery on the horizon October’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity continued to contract at the beginning of Q4 and forward-looking indicators point to further weakness ahead. 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Bleak outlook for consumer spending across DMs Although consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient in the US so far this year, it has weakened in other advanced economies. And as the lagged effects of high interest rates filter through to... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Uptick in global trade unlikely to be sustained for long Global goods trade rose slightly in August and timelier data point to further gains in September. But we expect global trade to fall again in due course as economic downturns in several advanced... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker activity and lower inflation The October flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity got off to a weak start in Q4, especially in Europe. And with weak activity taking some of the steam out of labour markets and inflation... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The fiscal implications of the rise in bond yields Perceptions matter at least as much as actual policies in determining fiscal stability. Accordingly, the surge in bond yields over the past month poses the greatest risk to those countries where the... 16th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Falling inflation at odds with ‘higher for longer’ The ‘higher for longer’ narrative on interest rates that is baked into market pricing is at odds with evidence of widespread falls in inflation. Higher oil prices mean that fuel inflation will be a... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Lower core goods inflation in the pipeline September’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity stagnated at the end of Q3, and forward-looking indicators point to further weakness ahead. The recent rise in oil prices seemed... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Downturn in global trade set to deepen further Global goods trade fell at its fastest pace since the pandemic in July and the timelier trade and survey data point to further declines in August and September. What’s more, given that we still expect... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs consistent with interest rate peaks The September Flash PMIs add to evidence that economic activity in the US and Europe is weakening. This supports our view that the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England have finished hiking interest rates. 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Key questions after the latest central bank meetings We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss the latest policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England and what they might mean for the future path of policy and financial markets. (See the recording... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update A tipping point for global monetary policy Despite all the talk of “higher for longer”, we believe that the global monetary policy tightening cycle is drawing to a close. In Q4, any final rate hikes in advanced economies will coincide with a... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game-changer for inflation We are not convinced that the increase in oil prices has set the stage for a sustained rebound in inflation. Accordingly, there is little chance that developed market central banks will resume or... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What will it take to bring down wage growth? Although wage growth is clearly falling in the US, the same cannot be said for the UK and euro-zone despite some evidence of labour markets cooling there too. A further fall in inflation expectations... 13th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 underlines that fracturing is becoming a reality The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
