Global Economics Update Caution is warranted on defence-driven growth The latest IMF analysis broadly corroborates the conclusion we reached a year ago that higher defence spending will not turbocharge economic growth. The near-term boost to output will be smaller than... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How could non-energy shortages affect supply chains? In the coming months, depressed shipments of non-energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz risk disrupting some supply chains using aluminium, plastics and synthetic rubber. The risks are... 16th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Initial war hit to world trade appears small After a strong start to the year, the early signs are that disruptions from the Iran war did not deal a heavy blow to world trade in March. In other trade developments, China continues to gain global... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The indirect inflation effects of higher energy prices Beyond their direct effects on consumer prices of fuels and piped gas, higher crude oil and natural gas prices will prompt firms to pass on higher fuel costs to consumers, boosting the prices of non... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the Iran war undermine AI investment? The Iran war could take some of the momentum out of the AI investment boom but we doubt that it will fundamentally disrupt the overall build-out. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Refined oil products caught in the maelstrom The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How should central banks respond to oil shocks? Central banks face a classic policy dilemma when oil prices surge – inflation rises but growth might weaken. The right response depends crucially on why oil prices are rising, how persistent the shock... 17th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Revisiting the risks around private credit Private credit funds have attracted growing scrutiny amid falling valuations and its exposure to software companies. Under a severe default scenario, losses might amount to around 0.4% of US GDP. That... 11th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What the Middle East conflict means for world trade The conflict in the Middle East threatens not only energy trade but also other trade flows, albeit to a lesser extent. The risk to container shipping is limited by the fact that the region was already... 4th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions and answers about the LNG crisis In light of the escalating crisis in the Middle East, including the cessation of LNG production in Qatar, this Update provides broader context about global LNG trade and the implications for energy... 3rd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The effects of surging energy prices on global growth and rates A prolonged conflict in the Middle East pushing oil to $90-100pb for a sustained period would be a significant headwind for the global economy. Importers such as the euro-zone would be hit hardest... 3rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
