Global Economics Update AI buildout to continue boosting world trade Exports of AI goods now make up a third of growth in overall global exports and they are likely to remain a key driver of trade into 2027. Meanwhile, the move from Section 122 to Section 301 tariffs... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation baked in regardless of US-Iran deal If the US-Iran deal holds and oil prices remain at their new, lower level, this will swiftly lower fuel inflation. However, this drag on headline inflation would be offset – outside the US, at least –... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Services still bearing the brunt of Iran war fallout The latest batch of PMIs suggests that industry has been buoyed by precautionary stockbuilding and the AI boom, while consumer-facing services have taken a hit in many economies. At the global level... 3rd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What medium-term disruption might AI bring? While the long-run impact of AI should be positive, the transition to widespread adoption could prove economically disruptive. This risk is greater if AI adoption accelerates and workers, firms and... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Trump-Xi summit: Truce continues, substance lacking While we are still waiting for full details on what was agreed at the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi, it seems mostly just to have cemented the existing trade truce. This should ensure near... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update First signs of advanced economy fallout from Iran war The marked increase in inflation across advanced economies has yet to cause real spending to contract, but the widespread decline in consumer sentiment and hiring intentions points to worse to come... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Limited scope for fiscal support in energy price shock Governments in developed economies have so far been circumspect in providing fiscal support to households to cushion the impact of higher energy prices. This is likely to remain the case given that... 11th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update El Niño could compound effects of the Iran war shock An El Niño in the second half of the year – as seems increasingly likely – would add to the upside pressures on food and energy prices stemming from the Iran war. The macroeconomic effects would be... 6th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks indicate rising risk of near-term hikes We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to review the latest Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions and what their communications imply for the future. (Recording available here.) This Update... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Five key questions on the UAE’s OPEC exit This Update considers the economic and geopolitical implications of the UAE’s departure from OPEC, as well as the future of the group. Note: We’ll be discussing the UAE's exit from OPEC in an online... 28th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update AI and jobs: could this time be completely different? We still believe that AI will alter the nature of work, rather than significantly diminish the role of human labour. While it is not impossible that AI eventually displaces most or all jobs, such an... 28th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Private credit CLOs not a repeat of 2008 CDOs The rapid growth of private credit CLOs has prompted comparisons with subprime CDOs in the lead-up to the global financial crisis. However, while there are some similarities, namely their opacity, the... 27th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about private credit and macro risk We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to discuss private credit and the risks to the macroeconomy and financial markets. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 22nd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Reopening of Strait leaves us close to our baseline scenario The announcement that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened has extended this month's dual rally in stocks and bonds. We think both rallies have further to run if things progress broadly in line with... 17th April 2026 · 4 mins read
