Global Economics Update PMIs show global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity lost some momentum at the start of Q3 and will probably weaken further from here. 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Your questions on Japan answered We held an online Drop-In session yesterday to discuss the latest developments in Japan’s economy and financial markets. This Update answers several of the questions that we received. 24th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update No single tariff playbook for central banks While higher tariffs will cause some Asian economies to pursue slightly looser monetary policy than otherwise, domestic factors will be the key driving force behind rate decisions in most economies in... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will stablecoins move into the mainstream? In this Update, we answer the key questions about what stablecoins are, whether they will become more widely used and what implications they have for the US Treasury market. 8th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam settles with Trump, with China again a target Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect as the Liberation Day deadline looms Given the limited progress in concluding trade negotiations since Liberation Day, there is a risk that huge tariffs will be imposed on 9 th July after the 90-day pause expires. We suspect that further... 2nd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply tariff price pressures only a US story The latest PMIs suggest that while global industrial activity gained some momentum at the end of Q2, this will probably prove short lived. Meanwhile, the surveys continue to suggest that tariffs are... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Fears about AI-driven job losses are overdone A number of AI-linked redundancies have hit the headlines recently, reigniting fears that the adoption of AI will lead to a surge in unemployment. We continue to think that fears of a big long-term... 30th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Where do fiscal deficits need to shrink most? Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and most will find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal sustainability. The US and France have... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz This Update answers five key questions about a potential “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential impacts on global energy markets from any attempt to close the waterway. As it stands, it... 23rd June 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Demographics adding to fiscal pressures As time marches on, the once distant threat of demographic pressures for many countries, especially those in Europe, is fast becoming a reality. This adds to the other pressures on the public finances... 20th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update How could Israel-Iran escalation affect energy prices? Oil prices could feasibly surge to $130-150pb were hostilities between Israel and Iran to escalate in a way that resulted in major disruption to Middle Eastern energy exports and/or shipping through... 18th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios This Update outlines potential outcomes of the Iran-Israel conflict and teases out the implications for the region, the global economy and commodity and financial markets. One point that emerges is... 18th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Rare earths “deal” won’t be the final word President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
