Global Economics Update World trade edging up as freight rates sink After a historically weak 2023, there are early signs of a modest turnaround in world goods trade which we expect to endure. Meanwhile, global container shipping costs have halved – and those for... 9th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs continue to suggest global industry is recovering March’s manufacturing PMIs provided further evidence that global industry is past the worst. And although higher industrial output has caused price pressures to increase in some advanced economies, it... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Your latest monetary policy questions answered We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for monetary policy following the US Fed and Bank of England policy meetings and comments by the ECB’s Christine Lagarde. (See a... 25th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Euro-zone lagging behind at the end of Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, while the UK and Japan seem to be pulling out of recession heading into Q2. The survey indicators of price pressures... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Global industry set for gradual recovery The latest data suggest that global industry may be coming back to life. Much of the improvement so far has related to China, where policy will continue to support domestic production. But falling... 19th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Are weight loss drugs a game-changer? There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow... 14th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slight improvement in industry February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity improved at the start of this year, but that activity in emerging markets continued to outperform that in advanced economies... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update 2023: Fifth weakest year for world trade since 1950 Although world goods trade rose in December, it wasn’t enough to change the fact that 2023 was one of the weakest years for trade in over 70 years, as we forecast a year ago. As for 2024, we expect a... 1st March 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What’s behind US economic exceptionalism? Larger government stimulus during the pandemic and a higher propensity to run down “excess savings” have contributed to particularly strong growth in the US. On the other hand, a significant terms of... 27th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting deflation? Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of... 26th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to stubborn price pressures in Europe Februarys’ flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity improved in Europe at the start of this year. But services prices pressures remained elevated, especially in the UK and euro-zone, meaning... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Can we still rely on the PMIs? The S&P Global PMI surveys have not been fully reliable guides to activity in major advanced economies over the past few years. But their relationship with GDP outside the US is still fairly strong... 21st February 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the threat of a new bout of inflation We have argued that most of the inflation battle is already won and fears that “ the last mile will be the hardest” are overdone. But during our central bank online Drop-In session last week, clients... 7th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Lengthening delivery times not too concerning The big picture from January’s manufacturing PMIs was the growing outperformance of industry in major EMs compared to their advanced economy peers. The surveys also highlighted that Red Sea... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Trade to be constrained more by demand than supply World goods trade looks to have had one of its weakest years in over 40 years in 2023. While shipping diversions may weigh on trade in the very near term, we think that they are unlikely to dent trade... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
