Global Economics Update Jackson Hole unlikely to bring more clarity Central bankers are unlikely to offer much forward guidance at this weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, preferring to stress their “data dependence”. Since most economies are expanding, inflation is... 21st August 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Shipping costs still elevated, but no longer rising Container shipping costs have fallen back slightly in the past few weeks. And while the potential for further shipping disruptions makes the outlook for shipping costs highly uncertain, as things... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still loosening in most DMs Market turmoil has not yet led to a tightening of financial conditions in the US and most other advanced economies. That’s because borrowing costs have fallen sharply as investors have grown to expect... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity slowed sharply at the start of Q3, and that activity will probably slow further. But weaker activity hasn’t taken the heat out of... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 (Updated 12th December 2024) · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs offer some hope of easing services price pressures The latest flash PMIs suggest that while GDP growth probably slowed in Europe at the start of Q3, it continued to recover in Japan. Although the rise in shipping costs has caused manufacturers’ input... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response First thoughts on the global IT outage The global IT outages affecting Windows software are causing huge temporary disruption to certain sectors including travel and healthcare, but while things are still very uncertain we do not... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global rate-cutting cycle is not “one size fits all” While the global monetary policy loosening cycle is now well underway, there is more nuance than you might assume. Recent data have made us more confident that cuts (or further cuts) are to come in... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What explains the stickiness of services inflation? Disinflation in the services sector seems to have stalled in several advanced economies this year. That’s partly because the easiest wins related to food and energy effects are behind us and also... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs show recovery losing pace The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry lost some momentum at the end of Q2. While activity in emerging markets continued to grow strongly, industry was still... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Where we stand after June monetary policy meetings We held an online Drop-In session late last week to discuss the outlook for monetary policy following the June policy meetings of the Bank of England, US Federal Reserve and ECB. (See a recording here... 24th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show weaker activity but resilient price pressures The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth in most major advanced economies slowed at the end of Q2. But weaker services activity hasn’t translated to softer price pressures, meaning central banks... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What if central banks stopped remunerating reserves? The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Why are shipping costs surging again? Container shipping costs have rebounded in the past month amid a pick-up in demand for goods from China and a possible front-loading of festive orders due to concerns about future shipping disruptions... 6th June 2024 · 5 mins read
