Europe Economics ‘Export ban’ won’t solve the EU’s vaccine woes The EU’s tougher stance on vaccine exports might help to secure some concessions and additional doses from the UK. But it will do nothing to combat vaccine hesitancy in parts of the bloc and is... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greece: easing no game changer, yet The easing of virus restrictions in Greece this week – despite rising case numbers – is unlikely to change the picture for Q1; the economy probably contracted. Moreover, if it leads to a faster spread... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New lockdown weighs on France’s recovery Tighter restrictions for large parts of France for at least the next month are likely to reduce activity by only a further 1.5% or so. But the economy was already operating some 5% below its pre-virus... 19th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth to remain subdued Even as inflation picks up this year, additional labour market slack, weak past inflation and a focus on jobs protection at the expense of pay increases all mean that euro-zone wage growth will remain... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank gearing up to hike As we expected, the Norges Bank laid the groundwork this morning for the start of a tightening cycle, later this year. But we think it will raise interest rates sooner and faster than it currently... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will be more relaxed about inflation over 2% We suspect that the ECB will be more tolerant of inflation in the future than it has been in the past. In particular, it is likely to look through a short period of above-target inflation this year... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Europe falling further behind on the virus front A new wave of coronavirus cases in Europe, and the pause in usage of the AstraZeneca vaccine, raises the risk that the EU will fall even further behind the UK and US in its recovery from the pandemic. 17th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Making sense of the DNB’s “technical adjustments” The recent technical adjustments to the Danish Nationalbank’s monetary toolkit simplify the policy framework and are not intended to alter the policy stance. But with the Danish krone at its strongest... 12th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy will struggle to grow as restrictions tightened With infections rising and restrictions being tightened, we expect Italy’s economy to do little more than stagnate in the first half of the year. Activity in the retail and hospitality sectors will... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s dovish surprise to suppress bond yields The ECB’s statement that it expects the pace of its PEPP purchases to be “significantly higher” in the coming quarter suggests that it will, at a minimum, resist further upward pressure on bond yields... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Assessing the slack in the euro-zone’s labour market The euro-zone’s labour market has held up much better than anybody had anticipated over the past year. But the amount of slack in the market is still greater than it was before the pandemic hit... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German auto problems should be temporary January’s slump in auto production looks likely to be sustained throughout the first quarter and to knock around 0.5% points from German GDP. However, the impact on the euro-zone aggregate will be... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Netherlands to continue to outperform Dutch GDP fell much less than the euro-zone average last year and, even though the economy is unlikely to avoid contraction in Q1, we think it will regain its pre-crisis level sooner than any other... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation expectations not a major concern for ECB Financial market-based measures of inflation expectations have returned to pre-pandemic levels, but consumers’ and firms’ expectations are generally more subdued, and the increase in industrial firms’... 9th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Counting the cost of the EU’s slow vaccine rollout The underwhelming vaccine rollout in Europe will probably delay the easing of restrictions and means that the best of the vaccine bounce will be pushed into Q3. That said, the planned EU-wide vaccine... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB respond to the rise in bond yields? The recent increases in real bond yields leave them still at low levels, but ECB policymakers nonetheless seem uncomfortable. Their verbal interventions have had little impact so far, so we think that... 26th February 2021 · 2 mins read
