Europe Economics Update ECB to put more emphasis on house prices in future The ECB is likely as part of the strategic review to place more emphasis on housing costs and may initiate the creation of a parallel price index that includes them, but it will not change the... 28th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big an impact will Next Generation EU have? Next Generation EU has the potential to provide a significant stimulus to the economy over the next six years. But the impact on GDP might be smaller than most expect, while the impact on long-run... 27th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Economic optimism won’t translate into policy action The decision by the Riksbank to leave the repo rate and its other policy settings unchanged today will have come as a surprise to no one. While policymakers are increasingly optimistic about the near... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t be micro-managing the bond market In today’s ECB press conference, Christine Lagarde did not seem fazed by the recent rise in bond yields or the evidence of tighter bank lending conditions. But we suspect that policymakers will push... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour market slack to keep wage pressures in check The amount of slack in the euro-zone’s labour market diminished slightly at the end of last year. But crucially, it remained higher than it was in 2019 and it is unlikely to have fallen much further... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker franc to further ease US-Swiss relations The fact that the US Treasury refrained from calling Switzerland a currency manipulator in its latest report lowers the temperature in US-Swiss relations but doesn’t change the policy equation for the... 19th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Yet another blow to Europe’s vaccine rollout The delayed start to deliveries of the J&J vaccine is yet another blow to the rollout in continental Europe and on its own could delay things by at least one month compared to a situation in which the... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Can we trust the business surveys? A divergence between strong surveys and weak industrial ‘hard’ data, mainly in the euro-zone, has again raised questions about how to interpret the business surveys. There are several reasons why... 13th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Households still accumulating excess savings We estimate that households accumulated “excess” savings of around 4.4% of GDP last year. But they are unlikely to spend this cash any time soon, so it will probably not do much to boost the recovery. 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Increase in ECB QE underwhelming so far The account of March’s ECB meeting showed that the decision to increase asset purchases was agreed by all members, but that some were reluctant to do much more. In practice, purchases haven’t risen... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Easing in Denmark is the exception, not the rule The comparative success that the Danish government has had in handling COVID has allowed it to start to re-open the economy, despite the painfully slow progress on the vaccine front. Most economies in... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Government troubles raise stakes in German election The broad consensus among Germany’s major parties means that September’s election will not lead to big macroeconomic policy changes. But with the Greens and/or SDP set to gain influence, fiscal policy... 1st April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation will remain higher in Germany Inflation looks set to rise further in Germany than in most other euro-zone economies this year and we suspect that it will remain higher there after the pandemic is over. However, we doubt that this... 31st March 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The good ship SNB set to maintain its course This morning’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy settings unchanged came as no surprise. The prospect of further falls in the franc should allow the Bank to largely stay out of... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The annual rate of money and lending growth remained strong in February, and with the ECB likely to make significant asset purchases throughout this year and next, money growth will remain well above... 25th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Recovery postponed again We are revising down our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth due to the resurgence of virus cases, slow pace of vaccination and extension of lockdowns. The recovery is likely to be delayed until the... 24th March 2021 · 5 mins read
