Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Investors underestimating pace of Norges Bank hikes This morning’s policy decision double-header played out as planned, with the Swiss National Bank maintaining the status quo and the Norges Bank finally pulling the trigger on its tightening cycle. But... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update “QT” creeping up the agenda in Sweden The Riksbank stuck firmly to “Plan A” this morning by maintaining the status quo for the repo rate and its asset purchase programme. However, the slight tweak to the Bank’s language on the outlook for... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Switzerland and Nordics to sidestep gas price woes The low use of gas, and a reliance on nuclear and renewables for electricity generation, means that Switzerland and the Nordics are less exposed to the recent surge in gas prices than other parts of... 20th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising gas prices will hit Spain hardest The upward pressure on euro-zone headline inflation from the surge in natural gas prices will not be felt evenly throughout the region, with Spain looking most vulnerable. Governments are stepping in... 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation impact of high gas prices will last into 2022 The recent surge in the prices of natural gas and coal, and therefore electricity too, has boosted energy inflation and suggests the risks to our near-term forecast for headline inflation lie to the... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB slows purchases but keeps policy ultra-loose The ECB today confirmed that it will slow its asset purchases slightly but this is a long way from a “full taper”. We think inflation will drop even further than the ECB expects over the medium term... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s asset purchase pace is ripe for reduction The fact that the Swedish GDP indicator was nearly 2% above its pre-virus level in July puts a question mark over the wisdom of the Riksbank’s plan to exhaust its asset purchase envelope by end-2021... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone driver shortages less acute than in the UK The shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers in the euro-zone appears to be nowhere near as acute as in the UK. We therefore don’t expect to see a surge in drivers’ wages that would lead to... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Expanded vaccine coverage to keep Delta in check The recent fall in aggregate new daily Covid cases in the euro-zone, largely due to the success of the vaccination programme, means that governments in the region should be able to avoid re-imposing... 2nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Delta variant not weighing on Italian recovery Data released today confirmed that the Italian economy grew strongly in Q2, supporting our above-consensus forecast for the year as a whole. Timelier data suggest that concerns about the Delta variant... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB may not agree taper until December The account of the ECB’s July meeting confirms that a minority of Governing Council members objected to the dovish shift in the Bank’s interest rate guidance. Partly because of this, we now think the... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Year-on-year money and lending growth has fallen sharply this year and we think it will decline further. With the subdued level of economic activity also weighing on consumer prices, we don’t think... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Investment to make sizeable contribution to growth Business surveys suggest that global supply problems are becoming a drag on euro-zone investment, but these problems should fade going into 2022. As long as the Delta variant doesn’t halt the economic... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s recovery taking longer than expected Data published today show that the weakness in German GDP in Q2 was due to the low level of household spending. Consumption should increase sharply in Q3. But with manufacturers struggling, the... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election result in the balance After a sharp rise in support for the SDP the election result looks set to be very close. Whatever the outcome, economic policy will not change very much, but fiscal policy may be slightly less... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of rising inflation expectations Market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen during the past few months, but they are still consistent with our view that inflation will remain well below target over the medium term... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
