Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Policy tightening by SNB remains a distant prospect While the Norges Bank will start hiking in Q3, and we now expect the Fed to raise rates twice in 2023, developments in Frankfurt will continue to set the tone at the Swiss National Bank. Having left... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour shortages little threat to German wage restraint There is less spare capacity in Germany’s labour market than elsewhere in the euro-zone, and economic activity is set to regain its pre-crisis level before long. However, we think wage inflation... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Delta variant won’t derail the euro-zone’s recovery The Delta variant does not appear to have taken hold in mainland Europe as yet, but the experience of the Alpha variety suggests that it could be dominant by the end of July. While this would be far... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB over-optimistic on growth? The ECB made significant upward revisions to its GDP forecasts last week, presumably encouraged by the recent experience of other economies. The Bank also seems to have come round to our view that the... 15th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the Norges Bank’s looming hikes into context A rate hike by the Norges Bank in September would make it the first G10 central bank to start to raise interest rates after the pandemic, by a comfortable margin. As a result, the NOK is likely to... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Not tapering yet, despite chunky forecast upgrades Having left the pace of its PEPP purchases unchanged and made big upgrades to its GDP forecasts, we think the ECB will start to taper the PEPP later this year. But we think it will eventually make an... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage pressures will prove limited There are some signs of labour shortages developing in parts of the euro-zone, notably in hospitality. But they are likely to be short-lived and will not put sustained upward pressure on wages. And... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Switzerland waves Auf Wiederloge to a new EU Treaty While the breakdown in Treaty talks between Switzerland and the EU makes the outlook for Swiss exporters more uncertain, we doubt that the lasting economic impact will be very big. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank won’t wait for the ECB The Norges Bank has a history of beginning to tighten policy earlier than the ECB and we think it will follow that pattern again this year. Meanwhile, although it’s not the most likely scenario, we... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy Recovery Plan: Bidenomics or Marshall Plan 2.0? Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Plan could provide a significant boost to aggregate demand in the coming years. And arguably even more important are the accompanying structural reforms, which could... 26th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro-zone see a US-style jump in inflation? Euro-zone inflation is likely to keep increasing as the economy re-opens, but we doubt it will rise as high as in the US. That’s because base effects will be smaller and the rebound in consumer... 19th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Slow start to jab rollout may come back to bite Europe While the vaccine rollout in Europe has finally kicked into gear, the legacy of the slow start means the EU is more exposed than the UK or the US if the Indian variant spreads quickly amongst the... 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t go as far as Fed with average inflation aim Following its strategic review, we think the ECB will set its formal definition of price stability as an inflation rate of 2%. But it might also adjust its forward guidance to signal some tolerance... 11th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate lift-off edging nearer in Norway As expected, the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at a record low of zero once again this morning but remains on track to be the first advanced central bank to start to raise interest rates... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery about to begin Following the recent progress on vaccinations across the euro-zone, we are revising up our GDP forecasts. We now think that the recovery will begin in Q2 and that the economy will return to its pre... 5th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The slowdown in money growth in March in year-on-year terms was largely due to base effects. It was still in the double digits and should remain strong over the rest of this year at least. But with... 29th April 2021 · 4 mins read
