Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for several months As expected, the ECB left its policy settings unchanged today and, given the flexibility of its current policy of implicit yield curve control, will probably make no changes until the second half of... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Tighter Policy in Norway still a long way off As expected, the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at a record low of zero once again this morning and reiterated that it “will most likely remain at today’s level for some time ahead”. This... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s slow vaccine rollout won’t prevent recovery France’s tight restrictions are set to be in place for at least another month or two, so GDP will not recover strongly during Q1. However, although the slow start to the vaccine rollout poses a... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Taking stock of our vaccine rollout assumptions Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets... 13th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of our vaccine rollout assumptions Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets... 13th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will households spend what they have saved? If euro-zone households spent all of their forced savings from last year, it could provide a boost to GDP growth in 2021 of as much as 3%. In practice, we doubt that it will be anything like that... 12th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The Nordic currencies could rise further in 2021 We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year... 7th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Looking towards the vaccine endgame While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here), and... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Looking towards the vaccine endgame While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here), and... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation will rise this year, but remain very low Euro-zone core inflation is likely to rise this year as the temporary VAT cut in Germany expires and last year’s sharp falls in holiday and clothing prices are reversed. However, the inflation rate... 6th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The lockdowns implemented at the end of last year did not lead to another surge in bank lending, probably because they were less strict and more focused on limiting social activity. But if lockdowns... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus poses downside risk to Q1 forecast The virus data for the holiday period in the euro-zone are not as alarming as those for the UK, but they will force governments to extend and intensify restrictions in the coming weeks. As a result... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Assessing the prospects for the EU’s vaccine roll-out 22nd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Assessing the prospects for the EU’s vaccine roll-out Yesterday’s approval of the first vaccine by European authorities marked the start of the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU, which we expect to lead to a lifting of restrictions in Q2. However... 22nd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank plotting (gradual) path back to normality As was widely expected, the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at zero this morning. However, it brought forward the projected start of rate hikes and signalled that it will retighten... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to stick to course, despite ‘manipulator’ label This morning’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy settings unchanged was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Looking ahead, the SNB will brush off being branded a ‘currency... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
