Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to make of the weaker Swiss franc? The recent fall in the Swiss franc against the euro will be music to the SNB’s ears, and we think that there is plenty of scope for the currency to drift lower over the coming years. 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German inflation: below but close to 4%? We are raising our forecast for HICP inflation in Germany and expect it to peak at over 3.5% this year. But we doubt that this will prompt any policy tightening by the ECB because aggregate euro-zone... 23rd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Governments likely to avoid a labour market cliff edge We think the risk of surge in unemployment and slump in household incomes later this year is quite low. Euro-zone governments are choosing to extend their job support schemes and will probably scale... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to start raising rates later this year We forecast the Norges Bank to be the first advanced central bank to begin raising interest rates, in the second half of this year. This will further bolster the krone, which we expect to be the best... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s recovery shifting into reverse After a relatively mild first wave of coronavirus, Portugal is now contending with the worst second wave in Europe. Another economic contraction in Q1 is all but certain and more delays to the vaccine... 16th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Draghi reform the euro-zone? Mario Draghi’s reputation and large majority put him in a strong position to promote euro-zone reform and he may have some successes in areas such as banking union and fiscal rules. But he will be... 16th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ten key questions on the digital euro A digital euro is many years away, and the fact it is not intended to replace physical cash means that it won’t supercharge monetary policy as some may hope. However, it could become the norm for... 15th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Asset purchases set to divide opinions at the Riksbank This morning’s announcement that the Riksbank left its policy settings unchanged will have come as a surprise to no one. Policymakers are in no rush to raise the repo rate from zero, but there are... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB write off government debt? A debt write-off would wipe out much of the recent increase in public debt burdens and give the ECB more scope to expand its balance sheet in the future. But the fiscal benefits for euro-zone... 9th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions about a Draghi-led government The markets have reacted well to the news that Mario Draghi has been tasked with forming a new government. It is hard to think of a better candidate to lead Italy through a crisis, but we doubt that... 4th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Summer tourist season at risk The emergence of new Covid-19 variants, and euro-zone authorities’ slow progress with vaccinations, mean that there is a growing risk of another summer tourist season being lost. That would put a huge... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Explaining Germany’s January inflation surprise Germany’s state-level data show that the sharp increase in inflation in January resulted from higher energy prices and delays to winter sales, as well as changes to the weights of the HICP basket... 2nd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What explains the strength of inflation in January? January’s surprisingly large increases in inflation in Germany and Spain were due to a range of factors, including a rise in VAT, higher energy and holiday prices, and methodological changes. As a... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surge in virus cases a threat to Spain’s recovery The number of new Covid-19 cases is surging once again in Spain and, with tougher measures looking inevitable, this will weigh heavily on economic activity in Q1. Things should improve later in the... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB not likely to accept tighter policy While yesterday’s ECB policy statement and press conference left many investors with the impression the Bank may be willing to tolerate higher peripheral bond yields, we doubt that this is the case... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
