Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Six key questions about the Danish mink outbreak The news that mutated versions of SARS-CoV-2 have been transmitted from minks to humans in Denmark has raised fears that the goalposts for a vaccine may have already shifted. This Update answers six... 11th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update High COVID-19 cases point to long-lasting restrictions While an effective vaccine would greatly improve the outlook for next year, the latest data show that the virus is still spreading rapidly. Unless this is reversed soon, the one-month lockdowns in... 10th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How would a vaccine affect the economy? If an effective vaccine is rolled out in the euro-zone in the coming months, it would lead to stronger growth next year but slower growth in 2022. With light at the end of the tunnel, policy support... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian economy to contract in Q4 Italy’s new tiered COVID-19 restrictions are likely to cause GDP to fall by about 2.5% q/q in Q4, and there is a risk that government is forced into a more severe national lockdown. That said, the... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Smaller hit to French GDP from Lockdown 2.0 A survey of firms from France’s central bank and high frequency mobility for last week suggest that the new national lockdown will have a smaller impact on France’s GDP than the first, perhaps of... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank set for a prolonged period at zero As expected, the Norges Bank did not set off any fireworks this morning, and the decision to leave its key interest rate on hold at zero was never in doubt. The economy is likely to prove... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Recoveries set to shift into reverse While Switzerland has not yet followed France and Germany in announcing a new national lockdown, we now expect GDP to contract in Q4, broadly in line with the euro-zone. Meanwhile, although the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New lockdowns to keep inflation low The new lockdowns in Germany and France, as well as the stricter virus containment measures in other countries, are likely to cause low inflation in the region to become even more entrenched. 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Fresh lockdown will cause new contraction We now expect euro-zone GDP to contract by 3% q/q in Q4 and to be unchanged in Q1 2021, based on the latest lockdown measures staying in place for three months. A return to the stricter measures of... 3rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update We doubt the SEK will remain a G10 top performer We think that the Swedish krona will appreciate a little further against the euro and the dollar in 2021, but doubt that it will remain one of the best-performing G10 currencies, as it has been this... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB makes big promises for December The ECB left its policy settings unchanged at today’s meeting, but explicitly stated that it would “recalibrate” them in December. We think this will include an increase in the size and duration of... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the new Franco-German lockdowns We think the one-month national “lockdowns” will result in GDP contracting by around 2.5% q/q in France in Q4 while in Germany GDP will be flat at best. There is obviously a big risk that the... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB focused on how, rather than if, ECB loosens again We think that Swiss policymakers would be prepared to match any small interest rate cut by the ECB, albeit reluctantly. However, if policymakers in the euro-zone opt to ease policy in other ways, as... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New virus restrictions to stop EZ recovery in its tracks We think that the second wave of COVID-19 infections and new containment measures will cause the euro-zone economy to stagnate over the next six months or so. In quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP would... 20th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second wave forcing more restrictions With the virus spreading rapidly, governments are ramping up their containment measures. The new restrictions will be more targeted, regional and time-specific than in the first wave, but they are... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone labour market slack to rise further Data published by Eurostat yesterday underline that there was a large increase in labour market slack. Looking ahead, it is likely to continue to rise sharply. 9th October 2020 · 2 mins read
