Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt in turmoil (again) Egypt’s “second revolution” has made the outlook for the Arab world’s most populous nation highly uncertain. The economy is already extremely fragile – growth is sluggish, unemployment is high and the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revamped SICAD won’t save Venezuela The re-launch of foreign exchange auctions in Venezuela, coupled with an increase in the public debt ceiling, is unlikely to solve the country’s dollar drought. We continue to think that GDP will... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set to slow as oil boom fades Growth in the Gulf is set to slow over the next couple of years as the past decade’s oil boom starts to fade. At the same time, oil prices are likely to fall too. This is unlikely to pose a serious... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is silver set to outshine gold? The analyst consensus is that the price of silver is likely to outperform that of gold as both continue to recover in the next year or so. We are nudging our gold price forecasts higher today in the... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nuclear energy restart not a game changer A partial resumption of nuclear energy generation is unlikely to reduce Japan’s trade deficit meaningfully. Electricity prices could fall slightly, but are likely to remain very high compared to... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further rises in oil prices would undermine global growth The recent rise in oil prices is not large enough to be a significant drag on global growth, particularly given that Brent crude has increased much less than WTI. However, if prices rise much further... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Recent fall in gas prices due to a lot of hot air The recent swings in the price of natural gas in the US have mainly been caused by the unusually cold spring. The bigger picture is that higher demand from utilities and manufacturers and lower... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada should weather China's slowdown Canada should weather China's economic slowdown relatively well, with fairly minor consequences for economic growth. Since China represents a fairly small share of Canada's total exports, any slowdown... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices likely to fall back by year end We expect the price of US soybeans to decline gradually over the summer as exports from South America pick up. They may then fall more rapidly by the end of the year as a large supply of crops from... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity imports were stronger than overall trade in June, but were still weak in the first half of 2013 overall. What’s more, China is shifting to a lower and less commodity-intensive growth... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Ample supply to weigh again on oil prices Oil prices have been lifted again by hopes of stronger demand and fears of disruption in the Middle East, but we do not expect these supports to be sustained. Ample supply against a backdrop of still... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown: which EMs are most exposed? Last week we published for the first time our forecasts for 2015 GDP growth in China, which put us right at the bottom end of consensus expectations. For the rest of the emerging world, the effects of... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity imports were stronger than overall trade in June, but were still weak in the first half of 2013 overall. What’s more, China is shifting to a lower and less commodity-intensive growth... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s commodity boom – an opportunity missed When all’s said and done, the commodity price boom of the past decade will probably go down as a wasted opportunity for the economies of Latin America. Rather than saving and investing their windfall... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Favourable weather to dampen US grain prices further The falls in US grain prices over the last month were largely due to better weather which allowed farmers to finish planting. The extremely wet spring had supported prices due to fears that late... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
