Commodities Chart Pack Supply disruptions cause prices to rally Most commodity prices rose in July, especially those which had fallen sharply over the previous two months. This occurred despite weakening demand prospects. Instead, supply-side developments were a... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: At the mercy of oil prices Fiscal profligacy and a lack of prudence in managing commodity revenues have left Ecuador highly exposed to a downturn in global oil prices. Limited financing options are likely to turn up the heat on... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Latin America wasting its commodities windfall? The fact that Latin America is spending its windfall from higher commodity prices is good news for the global economy, but carries significant risks for the region itself. In the near term the big... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are all commodities safe havens? The prices of gold and silver are obvious beneficiaries of the increasing worries about US government debt. But other commodities have also held up rather better than might have been expected... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA pledge should help cap oil prices The International Energy Agency (IEA) decided not to announce a further tapping of oil from strategic reserves today after the 30-day review of the release of 60m barrels last month. However, the... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMI signals Chinese demand still losing momentum The ongoing deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for July should offset at least some of the reassurance provided to commodity markets by the seemingly robust official data on... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Libyan end-game to knock at least $10 off oil prices We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent, currently $119, to fall back to $85 by the end of the year. This forecast is based largely on persistent sluggishness in demand, a stronger dollar... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Interpreting China’s steel output China’s steel output may well be higher than the official figures suggest, but the outlook for prices depends on what happens to demand. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How high could gold prices go? With the price of gold approaching $1,600 per ounce and hitting new highs this week in other major currencies too, many are asking how high prices could still go. A variety of methods suggests a... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities collapse China's imports of industrial commodities dropped sharply in the second quarter, indeed by more than they did during the global recession. Imports may well rebound in the second half of the year, but... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US demand likely to remain sluggish Today's weak employment report should go some way towards dashing the renewed optimism about the US economy which, combined with reduced fears of an imminent Greek default, had propped up commodity... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus How does speculation affect commodity prices? Changes in supply and in the demand from consumers can only explain part of the recent swings in commodity prices, with the rest largely due to speculation. What’s more, speculation can affect prices... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much do seasonal factors drive gold? The time of the year is fast approaching when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted by a seasonal pick-up in demand. We are sceptical that calendar effects can ever be that... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply separates the wheat from the sugar Commodity prices continued to fall in June. But while concerns about demand were the main driver in May, last month saw attention shift to the prospects for supply. This explains the divergence... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China’s destocking alone explain lower metals prices? The decline in China’s imports of industrial metals may partly reflect a drawdown of inventories, but underlying demand also appears to have weakened and shows no sign of rebounding. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Have oil prices fallen enough to fuel a global recovery? The recent fall in oil prices should help to stabilise global growth in the coming months. But prices would need to drop significantly more to offset other headwinds that will pick up further in 2012... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
