Commodities Update What's behind the narrowing in the Brent-WTI spread? The collapse in the differential between the prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) primarily reflects the prospect of a further easing of the logistical constraints that have been... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM winners and losers from the shale revolution There’s a vast amount of uncertainty about the potential for developing countries to follow the US and Canada in exploiting their shale reserves. But if they can, it could turn a large number of... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is $100 oil here to stay? The relative resilience of oil prices in the face of worries about US monetary policy and the health of China’s economy suggest that $100 will act as a floor for the price of a barrel of Brent for a... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Negative sentiment towards gold looks overdone Commodity prices mostly fell further in June, with gold being hit particularly hard by (premature) fears of an early end to the support from global monetary policy. Industrial commodities were also... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A more cautious view on gold The slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce on Friday forced us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal. Nonetheless, our revised forecasts assume a bit... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What next for gold? The recent slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce – which regrettably we failed to predict – has prompted us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A new front in the war on coal? US President Obama’s speech on climate change policy yesterday contained little new. Nonetheless, it highlights the downward pressures on coal prices already coming from environmental policy... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China slowdown and policy outlooks to keep prices weak Poor Chinese manufacturing data and the prospect that US monetary policy may soon be less supportive have more than offset signs that the recession in the euro-zone is easing. Of these developments... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rice price to continue to fall as Thailand reduces support We expect the reduction in the floor price the Thai government will pay rice farmers to increase private exports and sales from government stocks, putting further downward pressure on prices. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s really happening to China’s copper demand? Traditional methods of calculating copper demand have been suggesting that Chinese consumption is actually falling. However, these estimates of “apparent consumption” are distorted by changes in... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are oil prices set to take off due to Syria risks? Fears that Western intervention in Syria could increase the risks of a broader Middle East conflict have already put some upward pressure on the price of Brent crude. However, even if tensions do... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would the tapering of QE mean for the MENA region? Fears that the US Fed may begin to taper its third round of quantitative easing (QE) have led to a sell-off in emerging market assets over the past few weeks. The MENA region has escaped relatively... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are commodities to the tapering of QE3? The prospect of a reduction in US monetary stimulus has already begun to undermine the prices of many risky assets, from developed market equities to emerging market currencies. However, this prospect... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's underlying demand still weak The jump in China’s imports of major commodities on a month on month basis in May was probably flattered by the easing of earlier port delays. Other incoming economic data suggest that demand remains... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Correction in lumber prices should prove temporary US lumber prices have fallen sharply over the last couple of months after what, with hindsight, looks like an earlier overshoot. Nonetheless, we expect prices to climb again over the rest of the year. 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Growth mix fails to help commodities Signs of stronger growth in the US have failed to boost commodities, due in part to the likelihood that the Fed will start to scale back its asset purchases under QE3 sooner than it might otherwise... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
