Commodities Update China’s Imports of Commodities (Sep.) China’s commodity imports rose in the third quarter, particularly those of iron ore and copper. In our view, this was more a reflection of bargain-hunting rather than a strong upswing in underlying... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big a risk is a Chinese property crash? The boom in China’s construction sector has played an important role in driving demand for industrial metals, notably copper but also steel. Although there are two good reasons why the sector should... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Market turmoil finally gives the dollar a lift The dollar finally got a big boost in September from the euro-zone’s intensifying debt crisis and gloomy news on the global economy. The Fed’s major trade-weighted dollar index rose by nearly 6%... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global demand woes to send base metals even lower Despite the price of many industrial metals having plunged by a quarter in recent months, we believe that crumbling demand growth will lead to prices falling further. However, in the case of aluminium... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing downturn shows price weakness is real The deterioration in global manufacturing confirmed in the September PMI supports our view that underlying demand for commodities is weakening and that their prices have not simply been caught up in... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Reality bites The sharp falls in commodity prices in September are a timely reminder that the health of the global economy and financial system is at least as important as developments on the supply-side. The falls... 1st October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update 2012 copper price forecast lowered to $6,000 Copper prices have been a major casualty of the recent sell-off in commodities and have already dipped below our long-held forecast of $7,500 per tonne for 2012. Prices may well bounce in the coming... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Thailand’s rice scheme mean for global prices? Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, is set to introduce a generous price floor for local rice farmers, fuelling speculation that global rice prices are about to surge. However, we expect any... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro-zone crisis leaves more upside for gold Gold’s spectacular rise over the past decade has seen its price climb from $256 per ounce in 2001 to more than $1,900 at its recent peak. After such a long bull market and some large daily falls in... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Operation Twist” mean for commodities? Any further easing from the US Fed will probably be limited to lengthening the maturity of its existing holdings of Treasury securities (“Operation Twist”) rather than a third round of outright... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall to $85 per barrel in 2012 The factors that we had thought would undermine oil prices over the course of the year have been gradually falling into place, namely slower growth both in advanced and emerging economies, a reduction... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain's GDP continues to grow despite the social unrest Higher oil and manufacturing revenues helped to offset the decline in Bahrain’s services sector in the second quarter of this year. What’s more, although the country’s GDP grew by only 0.8% y/y in Q2... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Defying gravity The slowdown in the global economy and nervousness in financial markets undermined the prices of industrial metals and oil in August. Admittedly, these prices ended the month on a more positive note... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will a fall in the oil price affect Saudi Arabia’s spending plans? Concerns that the global economy may fall into recession again have increased the likelihood of a drop in the oil price, which in turn poses some downside risks to Saudi Arabia’s economy. Indeed, a... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's public finances not as strong as they seem At first sight Russia’s public finances appear a picture of health when compared to those in the developed world. But a growing dependence on high and rising oil prices as a source of revenue is a... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity prices to drop back on QE3 disappointment Not for the first time, commodity prices have been propped up by hopes of additional monetary stimulus from the Fed. However, we doubt these hopes will be realised anytime soon. What’s more, even if... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
