Commodities Update Are iron ore prices set to tumble? We expect iron ore prices to drop from around $144 per tonne currently to $110 by the end of this year and to fall further thereafter, due to escalating supply and disappointing Chinese demand. 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China still the wildcard Three macro developments should continue to set the tone for industrial commodity prices in the coming months. The end of the euro-zone recession is only a small positive, while the prospect that the... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain and soybean prices still have further to fall We think that the prices of US grains and soybeans are still higher than can be sustained by fundamentals, despite the sharp falls last month. 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: naira devaluation on the cards Our forecasts for a fall in oil prices, coupled with a relatively high rate of domestic inflation, suggest that pressure on the Nigerian naira is likely to build over the next year or so. We think... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to grind lower over the next year Despite the introduction of a new support scheme for coffee farmers in Brazil, we expect the price of arabica coffee to fall from around 120 US cents per lb today to 100 by the end of 2014. This is... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi oil sector’s drag on growth starting to ease Saudi Arabia’s activity data for June provide further evidence that the slowdown in growth over the past year or so probably bottomed out in the second quarter. The non-oil sector continues to grow at... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports surge higher After a year of being pitifully weak, China’s commodity imports rose rapidly in July, in many cases to record highs. This has sparked a rally in commodity prices but we doubt this will be sustained. 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What could be the long term impacts of the shale boom? Shale oil and gas has transformed the energy outlook in the US. However, the impact on the rest of the world has been negligible so far. Other countries are finding it difficult to replicate the... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Plummeting cobalt prices still have further to fall We think that the proposed ban on exporting cobalt concentrates by the largest producing country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), will be deferred again at the end of this year. As a result... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Uranium: the Capital Economics view The price of uranium is at a seven-year low but we forecast that it will increase from $36.50/lb today to $50 by the end of 2014, and to $60 in 2015. The key drivers are likely to be a recovery in... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Is the worst now over for "risky" assets? A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply takes centre stage Supply factors played a key role in the movement of many commodity prices in July. Most importantly, the price of WTI has risen towards the price of the global benchmark, Brent crude, as logistical... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global potash price slump won't harm Canada's economy The anticipated slump in potash prices should have only a minor impact on Canada's economy. Potash mining represents a tiny share of Canada's GDP and exports. Moreover, the relatively lower cost of... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China suffering from deflation? If China has dropped into deflation, as many now claim, one implication is that stimulus would succeed in driving a sustainable economic rebound. But evidence of deflation is weak, at best. This is... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Headwinds set to persist Commodities are extending their generally poor performance into a third successive year. Concerns about the early withdrawal of monetary stimulus at least are overdone, even though there may still be... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China weakening, euro-zone stabilising Flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone, released this morning, have continued to diverge. China’s manufacturing index fell unexpectedly to its lowest level since last August, but the euro-zone... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
