Latin America Economics Update El Niño to have limited impact on real economy The El Niño weather event that is expected later this year may cause some localised disruptions, but it is unlikely to have a marked impact on overall economic activity in the region. 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Nickel prices may have risen too far, too soon As of end-April, nickel prices had risen 32% since the beginning of 2014, defying the otherwise downward trend in industrial metals prices. The catalyst was a ban on ore exports by Indonesia... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Steady as she goes We forecast a fairly small rise in the 10-year US government bond yield by end-2015 despite a shift in Fed policy. We also think the BoE will raise rates later and more slowly than the US central bank... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low stocks will put upward pressure on US natural gas prices Extremely low levels of natural gas stocks in the US are likely to put upward pressure on prices over the rest of this year and potentially even into 2015. 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply fears underpin commodity prices Many commodity prices rose in April, boosted by supply concerns around industrial metals, agricultural commodities and crude oil. In particular, the price of coffee surged again after early harvests... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper hasn't yet bottomed The unwinding of financing deals in China that use copper as collateral is set to add to the downward pressures on prices from a further slowdown in China’s economy, led by the property sector. We... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising retail gasoline prices no conundrum The recent jump in gasoline prices isn’t a conundrum. Several explanatory factors are at play, including seasonal effects. But for the most part, rising gasoline prices reflect higher refinery crude... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update El Niño will only provide temporary support to commodity prices An El Niño weather event appears likely in the second half of 2014, which may disrupt the supply of some commodities. The disruption could lead to sharply higher prices where stocks are already low or... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: oil sector boom masks medium-term weakness A combination of rising oil production and investment into its offshore hydrocarbons sector is likely to underpin strong economic growth in Angola over the next couple of years. But history suggests... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recovery gains momentum The past month has seen Latin American financial markets perform fairly well, building on the momentum of March’s rebound. But despite the recent gains, we expect some renewed downside this year amid... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is LNG the route to a global natural gas price? Global LNG supply is set to soar over the next five years as a number of large projects in Australia come on stream and the US starts to export. The greater availability of more flexible gas supply... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What China’s GDP data should mean for commodities China’s official GDP data for the first quarter, released earlier today, could reasonably be interpreted either positively or negatively for commodities. The commonest reaction appears to be relief... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Still too soon to call the turn The main upward pressures on commodity prices have recently been coming from the supply-side, including weather shocks (many agriculturals), export bans (some industrial metals), and unplanned outages... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus A Chinese hard landing: Which Asian countries are most at risk? A hard landing in China’s economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of Emerging Asia. A slump in Chinese demand would hurt economies with close trade links to China, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's soybean demand is likely to slump later this year We think that the drivers of the recent surge in grain and soybean prices are likely to prove temporary. Lower demand from China coupled with large harvests from Brazil should put downward pressure on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
