Commodities Update Would the release of US strategic oil reserves be a game changer? The sale of crude oil from the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not as unusual as some of the media headlines suggest, and the small test release, announced yesterday, is unlikely to have a... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Crop prices supported by weather and conflict risks Grain and soybean prices are likely to be determined by weather factors and geopolitical risks over the next few months, but we believe that the risks lie to the downside, especially for soybeans. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper and iron ore prices to fall further It has been our long-held (and non-consensus) view that copper and iron ore prices were set to fall significantly this year based on improving mine supply and slowing demand growth, notably in China... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slowing demand to weigh on coal prices We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as major consuming countries, including China as well as the US, take more steps to reduce pollution... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's imports likely to slow again in coming months China’s commodity imports were much stronger than expected in year-on-year terms in February. But we suspect that much of this is due to a combination of financing deals and opportunistic buying... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pick-up in Saudi economy driven by the oil sector Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi Arabian economy picked up at the start of this year. But the rebound has been driven by the oil sector, while the non-oil sector continues to struggle... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What the crisis in Ukraine could mean for the rest of the world The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant and prolonged impact on the global economy and financial markets, even though our current judgement is that the fallout is likely to... 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What might China's "war on pollution" mean for metals prices? At face value, the “war” on pollution and less investment-driven growth reiterated at China’s ongoing National People’s Congress (NPC) does not bode well for commodity demand (or prices). Indeed, we... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine crisis a bigger threat to grain markets than energy Whilst we do not expect significant disruption to the supply of any commodities, there is much greater potential for exports of grain from the Ukraine to be interrupted than energy supplies from... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the Ukraine crisis mean for energy prices? A further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine could return the price of a barrel of Brent to the highs of around $125 seen in the early days of the “Arab Spring”. However, we would expect any such... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Unseasonal weather lifts prices Adverse weather played a major role in the upward price movements of both energy and agricultural commodities in February. Harsh winter conditions in the US boosted energy prices while concerns about... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Political upheaval in Thailand to weigh on rice prices The potential end of the controversial support scheme for rice farmers in Thailand this week should add to the downward pressure on rice prices over the next few years. In particular, how the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Political risk and bad weather keep prices high After calming down towards the end of last year, political protests and disruption in key producer countries have re-emerged as a key factor driving oil prices higher. What’s more, the extreme cold in... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sluggish manufacturing data to keep prices subdued Weaker manufacturing PMIs published today underline the downside risks to the prices of industrial metals from the continued slowdown in China and the fragility of the recovery in the euro-zone. Even... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How are Chinese financing deals affecting the copper market? One source of relief for copper producers has been the recent strength of China’s copper imports. This has been somewhat surprising given that other indicators point to weakening Chinese economic... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Quality over quantity for Chinese farmers, but supply still ample The announcement that China’s government will place more emphasis on food safety and quality, rather than just quantity, might suggest that the country will have to import significantly more grain... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
