Commodities Update The vultures are circling on financing deals All the signs are that commodity demand as part of Chinese financing deals is set to fade. The profitability of the schemes is being eroded and the authorities are stepping up efforts to curb some... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The latest salvo in the war on coal The rules proposed by the US Environmental Protection Agency should ultimately serve to reduce demand for coal and put downward pressure on prices, even if there are lengthy legal challenges. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A more stable Chinese economy supports prices Energy and industrial commodity prices were boosted by stronger US economic data in May and signs that China’s economy stabilised in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the supply outlook for a number of... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold retains core appeal despite latest price dip The recent decline in the price of gold can largely be explained by a reduction in safe-haven demand, as concerns over the wider fallout from the crisis in Ukraine have eased and global equities have... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices continue to tread a thin line Strong growth in demand and supply bottlenecks will offer some support to aluminium prices and premiums this year, despite a backdrop of Chinese overproduction and high global stocks. As long as a... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia – China deal unlikely to boost European gas prices Proposed exports of Russian gas to China will have limited impact on the potential supply to the rest of Europe. Indeed, the price of LNG may actually be lower than otherwise as a result of the... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing data stabilise, but concerns remain Today’s flash manufacturing PMI data for China suggest that the economy is stabilising. While stronger export orders and manufacturing activity are positive news for commodity prices, the commodity... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gazprom’s China deal not a game changer for Russia’s economy The benefits to the Russian economy from the $400bn deal signed earlier today between Russia and China are likely to be smaller than most seem to think. Instead, the importance of the deal is largely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices set to cool The price of Arabica coffee has soared this year as the market looks likely to fall into deficit after four years of excess production. However, stocks are high and there is a huge risk premium in... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cocoa prices will fall unless El Niño disrupts production We expect cocoa prices to fall back in 2014-15 as market expectations of surging consumption growth appear misplaced. Indeed, we expect the market to return to a small surplus in 2013/14 after two... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update All oils are not created equal The surge in US oil stocks on the Gulf coast means that the pipeline constraints which had been holding back the price of WTI now look largely to have been resolved. However, excess supplies of light... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Something has got to give in the global steel industry A sharp increase in US steel imports from Asia in the first quarter serves to highlight the overcapacity and overproduction of Asia’s steel industries. Surplus Asian output is undermining the global... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean supply set to be more than ample this year The latest WASDE report, released on Friday, supports our view that supplies of grains and soybeans are likely to be abundant this season. This should lead to sharp prices falls, especially of... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Surprising apathy in the platinum market Compared to those of other metals facing supply disruption, platinum prices have been relatively unresponsive and traded in a narrow range. Nonetheless, we believe that strong demand growth and... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Surge in China's soybean imports likely to be unsustainable China’s imports of key commodities grew strongly again last month despite lacklustre industrial activity. However, the growth mainly reflects temporary factors such as earlier shipments from Brazil... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dwindling supply growth will ultimately support lead prices We expect lead prices to fall in the near term, reflecting concerns about the outlook for China’s demand and a relatively comfortable stock position. However, the market is likely to fall into deficit... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
