Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from another oil price shock The escalation of violence in Iraq over the past week or so has led to concerns that unrest in the Middle East might trigger another spike in oil prices. As it happens, the impact on world oil markets... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are higher oil prices a threat to Asia? A sharp rise in oil prices as a result of the crisis in Iraq would have negative effects on Emerging Asia. While the inflationary impact is likely to be manageable, most Asian economies are net... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum supply disruption is still a risk After many twists and turns, it now appears that the five-month long strike at South African platinum mines is finally over. At first sight, this should mean that mine supply will recover quickly... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMI data suggest only limited support for commodity prices Despite the rebound in the PMIs in both China and Japan in June, prospects for industrial commodity prices remain weak for now. Sluggish euro-zone manufacturing activity and the downturn in China’s... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three oil price scenarios from the Iraq crisis The situation in Iraq could play out in many ways. In a “good” scenario, the crisis would ease soon and there could even be some positive fallout for the region. (Our current forecast that Brent will... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher demand should boost US lumber prices We expect US lumber prices to rise over the next year as US house building picks up pace after the extremely cold winter. This should more than offset the impact of slowing property investment in... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US oil exports just one piece of the puzzle Despite the recent surge in US oil exports, the volumes of crude leaving the US remain minute. It is looking increasingly likely that some export restrictions will be relaxed, but this could take... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Silver set to outshine gold again Sentiment in the silver market has remained bearish this year, despite higher gold prices and the strength of global equities. Silver and gold can become disconnected at times, reflecting their very... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's the tipping point for oil prices? We would be wary of assertions that there is a single “magic number” for the oil price beyond which the world economy enters a danger zone. Nonetheless, global growth has been sluggish ever since... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iraq now even less likely to reach oil production goals The capture of a number of Iraqi cities by insurgents over the last few days has served to highlight the difficulty Iraq will have in meeting its lofty aims for oil output. However, the impact on... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices are likely to continue to fall this year Good growing conditions in the US and elsewhere recently have boosted hopes of another set of bumper harvests. If realised, this should lead to sharp falls in prices, especially of soybeans. 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi Arabia to shoulder more of OPEC's burden The twice-yearly OPEC meeting in Vienna this week is likely to confirm the official production target of 30m barrels per day. But this is unlikely to prevent the oil price from falling over the next... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Q1 growth flattered by gold trade The Turkish economy held up well in Q1, in spite of a deepening political crisis and an aggressive hike in interest rates. However, growth was boosted by an improvement in Turkey’s gold trade balance... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports are likely to fall further China’s imports of all the main commodities fell sharply in May. This suggests that slower economic growth and the attempts to clamp down on financing deals are starting to have a negative impact on... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can other EMs match the growth in China's metal demand? With China’s economy slowing and moving out of its most commodity-intensive phase of development, attention is turning to other developing countries and whether they can replicate China’s consumption... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fracking to provide small but growing boost to UK gas output The UK’s production of fossil fuels is likely to continue declining for the next few years. However, the prospects for shale gas are looking more positive, even if commercial production is still a... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
