Commodities Update Can China’s steel producers export their way out of trouble? Despite weak domestic demand, China’s steel industry continues to raise output. Exports are providing an outlet for some of the oversupply, but this is only a partial solution. Prices will remain... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Have grain and soybean prices hit a floor? There is still scope for some small falls in nominal grain prices and larger ones in soybean prices in themedium term, especially if oil prices continue to fall back. Over the longer term we also... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russian ban to put downward pressure on food prices The enactment of import bans by Russia on agricultural commodities from a number of Westerncountries should put downward pressure on international food prices over the next year, withcommodities such... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean imports likely to fall next month China’s imports of key commodities were mixed in July, reflecting opportunisticbuying, the slowdown in the property sector and lower import activity related tofinancing deals. 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slump in US natural gas prices only temporary Mild summer weather in the US combined with an increase in production has pulled down US naturalgas prices over the last few months. However, we think that in the long term, higher demand from... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What next for commodity price correlations? The perceived wisdom is that the very high correlation between commodity and equity pricemovements during 2009-12 was an aberration caused by the global financial crisis and itsramifications. We do... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply factors pull down commodity prices An increase in oil supply from Libya outweighed an increase in geopoliticaltensions elsewhere causing oil prices to fall in July, whilst continued goodweather in the US led to a drop in the prices of... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How and where the latest sanctions will hit the Russian economy The latest package of sanctions adopted by the EU and the US against Russia will affect the economy in different ways. In the short-term, restrictions on access to western capital markets for selected... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have further to run The tightening cycles that began in Ghana and South Africa earlier this year continued in July and, in both cases, we think that further interest rate hikes are likely before the end of 2014. Ghana’s... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook North Africa getting back on its feet Three years on from the “Arab Spring” uprisings, the tide is turning in favour of the economies of North Africa. Admittedly, there are still many challenges, not least reining in large twin current... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Property price worries prompt rate hikes The central banks of New Zealand, the Philippines and Malaysia all tightened monetary policy last month amid signs that policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned that loose monetary policy is... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak Chile activity data point to further interest rate cuts Chile’s activity data for June point to GDP growth of just 2.3% y/y in Q2, an outturn that would mark the third consecutive quarter of sub-3% growth. With the economic outlook unlikely to improve in... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Reduction in fuel subsidies to curb oil demand Subsidies in developing nations allow manyconsumers access to fuel at a fraction of itsmarket cost. However, rather than helping thepoor, most of the benefits of these subsidiesaccrue to richer people... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fracking to play a larger role in UK energy production The UK government’s announcement that it will open a new round of bidding for fracking licencesunderlines its enthusiasm for developing its shale resources. However, it will be many years if... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What impact could El Niño have on agricultural commodities? It is looking increasingly likely that an El Niño weather phenomenon will develop in the Pacific Ocean later this year. This has raised fears that crop production across the Americas, South-East Asia... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Fuel subsidy reform an early test for Indonesia’s Jokowi Financial markets have welcomed the election of Joko Widodo as Indonesia’s president, but there is still great uncertainty over his policy priorities and his ability to push through his own agenda. Mr... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
