Commodities Update Glut of grain and soybeans to push prices lower The outlook for global grain and soybean production received another boost late last week as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) further increased its estimates for the 2014/15 harvest... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower commodity prices and what they mean for Lat Am Fresh falls in global commodity prices in recent weeks have stoked concerns about how Latin America will fare as the tailwinds from the global commodities boom fade. The short point is that regional... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Underlying inflation pressures building in parts of the Gulf In aggregate, inflation in the Gulf countries has remained stable over the past few months, helped by easing food inflation. But there are signs that core price pressures are starting to build... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese domestic demand remains weak The recovery in China’s commodity imports last month was mainly driven by an increase in processing and re-exports, rather than stronger domestic demand. Indeed, the weakness in China’s property... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Inflation still likely to moderate despite recent yen weakness The impact of the recent weakening of the yen on consumer prices will be dampened by lower crude oil prices. The upshot is that CPI inflation is still likely to moderate towards year-end rather than... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price slump shouldn't threaten domestic producers Canada's position as a large energy net exporter obviously means that it is exposed to any slump in world oil prices. Should the recent slump in oil prices persist, then that would certainly leave its... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Rising Indian demand not enough to boost coal prices Slower economic growth in China and the EU, combined with active efforts by these regions and the US to move away from coal power, have caused coal prices to slump dramatically over the last few... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update LME warehouse reform no longer so relevant The LME’s warehousing reforms should facilitate access to metal from its warehouses, a factor that was creating artificial tightness in the aluminium market last year. However, the market has moved on... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget deficits not a disaster, but spending growth to slow Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position looks set to swing from surplus to deficit in the near-future. This would by no means be a disaster as the authorities could easily finance budget shortfalls for many... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply not demand weighing on the copper price We continue to expect the copper price to fall further in the fourth quarter but this forecast is premised on strong supply growth rather than a sharp drop in demand. Indeed, if supply disappoints... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How will OPEC respond to falling oil prices? There are several reasons why OPEC members in general – and Saudi Arabia in particular – are likely to be sanguine about the recent slump in the price of oil. Output will therefore continue to respond... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What risks does Ebola pose to commodity markets? Aside from cocoa, the outbreak of the Ebola virus in West Africa has not yet had a significant impact on commodity prices. The main reason is that the three most affected countries – Guinea, Liberia... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US natural gas stocks still low going into withdrawal season Lower stocks of natural gas in the US compared to this time last year make it more likely that there will be a repeat of the price spikes seen last winter. However, even if this winter is mild, we... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack US dollar strength weighs on commodities Almost all commodity prices fell in September, largely in response to the strength of the US dollar and, in many cases, a strong supply outlook. Signs of slower Chinese and euro-zone economic growth... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine’s gas deal a step in the right direction The potential restart of Russian gas sales to Ukraine is a positive step in relations between the two countries and should help to put downward pressure on the prices of European gas and coal. However... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
