Commodities Outlook Risks (mostly) still on the downside Commodities will not of course underperform other assets for ever, especially with end-user demand supported by a strengthening global economy. In comparison, valuations in equity and bond markets are... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Should we worry about sinking freight costs? The latest slump in the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of sea freight costs) has prompted some concern over the strength of the global economic recovery. However, we would not place much faith in the BDI... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Indonesia's export ban offers temporary support to nickel prices On 12th January, a law banning ore exports from Indonesia came into effect. The impact will be greatest in the nickel market, where Indonesia has a dominant position as the second largest miner of... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher output implies another weak year for grain prices Further increases in the production of grains and soybeans this year should put further downward pressure on prices. However, there is still plenty of time for adverse weather to shock the market. 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran deal underlines downside risks for global oil prices Confirmation that the interim nuclear deal between the major Western powers and Iran will come into force on 20th January is not in itself a game-changer for oil markets. Indeed, in the near-term... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US farmers dig in for cold weather The very cold weather in the US appears to have had fairly little impact on agricultural commodities. Indeed, even those crops most at risk, such as wheat and citrus fruits, seem to be mostly unharmed... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity import demand set to slow further Unsurprisingly, China’s imports of many commodities, including oil, reached new highs in 2013. More noteworthy were clear signs of a slowdown in the growth of many key commodity imports. What’s more... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Apparent market tightening supporting copper prices for now Falling exchange stocks and solid apparent consumption growth in China in the second half of the year pushed copper prices to around a 7-month high of $7,000 per tonne by end-2013. However, the... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why Iran talks have not (yet) led to much lower oil prices The progress being made in defusing tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme has failed to have a marked impact on global oil prices. In part this is because of renewed disruption elsewhere in the... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Investors glad to put 2013 behind them The end of 2013 marked another year of dismal returns for commodity investors. The prospects for supply have been the key driver of most commodity prices, especially for agriculturals. The main... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira comes under fire A high-level corruption scandal has taken its toll on Turkey’s financial markets over the past month. The stock market has been the second worst performer among those of the emerging economies that we... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will gold come back into favour in 2014? The consensus is that the price of gold will grind lower in 2014, at best, as the support from loose US monetary policy gradually weakens. In contrast, with investor sentiment already so heavily... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fed tapering shouldn't be a big deal for commodities The stance of US monetary policy is well down the list of key drivers for the prices of most commodities. The prospect of an extended period of ultra-low interest rates and the backdrop of stronger US... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agricultural reform in China could reduce global prices Potential changes to China’s farm subsidies, which would allow market forces to have more influence over domestic crop prices, could result in substantially lower state stockpiling of many... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How much control does OPEC still have over oil prices? The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has of course had a significant influence on oil prices since its creation in 1960. However, a combination of internal division and growing... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican energy reform sets scene for stronger growth The landmark reform to open up the Mexican oil industry to private sector investment should alleviate concerns that the government’s ambitious reform programme has stalled before it has got off the... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
