Commodities Update Is this the beginning of a commodity downturn? The main commodity indices have edged lower this year but the headline figures mask very diverse underlying price movements. Looking ahead, we think that the macroeconomic backdrop for commodities... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks are not painting a clear picture of demand Exchange stocks generally fell over the last month. The bigger picture is that there have been sharp drawdowns in global exchange stocks of aluminium and zinc and a large build in copper inventories... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold’s luck to run out The price of gold was largely unaffected by the Fed’s decision to raise its policy rate target by 25bp, to between 1.00% and 1.25%, yesterday. While many have attributed the resilience in the gold... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Is the optimism over coal demand justified? Hotter weather and faster economic growth have led to hopes that demand for coal will rise this year. However, improvements in energy efficiency and the rapid growth in renewable power mean that coal... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (May) China’s activity data were broadly stable in May, but a slowdown in construction starts and growth in investment do not bode well for future metals demand. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Negative sentiment weighing on prices It has been a dismal few weeks for commodity prices. Prices have generally fallen amid signs of somewhat slower Chinese growth and concerns about subdued growth in oil demand and still-high stocks... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tightness in tin likely to ease The likelihood that China will start exporting refined tin in much larger quantities should ease the relatively tight supply picture outside China. As such, we have revised down our end-2017 price... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does a stronger Europe mean for commodities? It now appears likely that the European economy will record the strongest growth in nearly a decade in 2017. While Europe cannot compete with China or the US in terms of the likely impact on... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Recovery in China’s commodity imports likely to be short-lived China’s commodity import volumes bounced back in May, after a weak April. However, we doubt that this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery. Slower credit growth is expected to lead to weaker... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Is the US leaving the Paris Agreement significant? The withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change will not alter our forecasts of US demand for energy commodities, since the agreement was non-binding and President Trump had no... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Are we too bearish on the prospects for lead prices? Despite the recent rally in prices, we remain bearish on the long-term prospects for lead usage. While increased demand for start-stop systems in cars could provide some support to prices over the... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Mixed messages from China’s PMIs The official and unofficial May manufacturing PMIs for China told somewhat different stories. However, we are inclined to put more weight on the unofficial PMI, which fell for the third successive... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rising supply and weak demand to weigh on coal prices Coal prices have been supported recently by strong global economic growth. However, a slowing Chinese economy, rising supply and intense competition from cheap natural gas and renewable power mean... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Metals prices could fall sharply as sentiment turns Sentiment towards metals has deteriorated somewhat since the start of 2017. We had warned that this could happen as the large investor inflows into metals markets last year were mostly premised on... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update What could Trump’s budget mean for energy commodities? Donald Trump’s budget proposal is unlikely to dramatically alter the energy and oil markets, even if Congress does not significantly temper them. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher stocks reflect the slowdown in China’s activity Stocks generally rose over the last month, which we think is consistent with broader macroeconomic data showing a slowdown in China’s activity in April and the recent weakness in most metals prices. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
