Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to strong industrial output in August While stronger manufacturing PMI readings imply an acceleration in industrial activity in August, we don’t think that the upturn will be sustained given the increasing headwinds from policy tightening... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to benefit from high geopolitical risks Elevated geopolitical risks and expectations that the Fed will only raise interest rates slightly this year and next have buoyed the price of gold. While we have revised up our end-2017 forecast to... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread likely to narrow Higher crude exports, falling stocks and the return of refineries shuttered by Hurricane Harvey should all help to boost WTI prices and narrow the Brent-WTI spread over the rest of the year. 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors exaggerate move in metals prices Whilst fundamentals have played a role in the most recent rallies in industrial metals, we think that speculative activity has exacerbated the move up in prices. In some cases – notably copper –... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update No shortage of tin now! The ongoing surge in ShFE tin stocks was the main story in the last month. In fact, inventories of most ShFE metals have risen in the last four weeks, while stocks of nearly all the LME metals have... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update North Korea sanctions should not have much market impact Some commentators are justifying the recent surge in a number of industrial commodity prices on the prospect of lower available supply as a result of the latest sanctions on North Korea. However, we... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent backwardation should help to reduce oil stocks The recent backwardation in the Brent futures curve will encourage traders to continue to draw down stocks over the next few months, which should support spot prices. 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities weather the storm Commodity prices held their own in the last month amid the escalation in geopolitical tensions involving the US and North Korea. The depreciation of the US dollar helped to support prices, along with... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore’s last hurrah? The price of iron ore has staged an impressive rally since late June, fuelled by a combination of strong growth in China’s steel output and speculative activity. However, with steel demand and... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jul.) China’s July activity and investment data showed a marked downturn and reversed most of the gains recorded towards the end of the second quarter. We had always expected policy tightening to translate... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does the North Korean crisis mean for gold prices? The price of gold was a key beneficiary of the recent increase in tensions between the US and North Korea. While we think that the chances of a full-scale war are quite slim, there remains huge... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Markets appear surprised by bearish WASDE data The prices of wheat and soybeans plunged after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised up its estimates of global production. What’s more, it is projecting that global inventories of wheat and... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc rally to fade towards year-end After falling at the start of the year, robust demand and constrained supply have pushed the price of zinc higher in recent months. The strength in prices is likely to persist over the next couple of... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling stocks to support oil prices, even if the dollar rises again A weaker US dollar has given some support to oil prices over the last month. However, the inverse relationship is likely to break down again over the next year as rising US interest rates support the... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Poor start to H2 2017 for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes were generally weak in July. High stocks of many commodities and growing domestic production dampened demand for imports. What’s more, the prospect of cooling domestic... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How strong is demand for coal, really? The lack of timely coal consumption data on a monthly basis – at least at a global level – makes it difficult to determine changes in coal demand in the short term. Our new Capital Economics World... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
